India To Lead Global Oil Demand By 2035 -Leaving The US And China Behind!

India is set to outpace both China and the United States in oil demand growth by 2035. According to IEA’s Global Energy Outlook 2025, India’s booming economy, growing industries, and rising vehicle numbers will make it the center of global energy consumption. The agency estimates that India’s energy demand will grow by 3% every year until 2035-the fastest among all major developing economies worldwide.

How Much Oil Will India Consume?

Currently, India consumes around 5.5 million barrels of oil per day. By 2035, this number could rise to nearly 8 million barrels daily. The key reasons are more car buyers, higher jet fuel consumption, and an expanding plastics and chemical industry. The IEA says that half of the world’s total increase in oil demand during the next decade will come from India alone, making it the biggest driver of growth in the energy market.

Will India Depend More On Imports?

Despite government efforts to boost domestic oil production, India’s import dependence will increase. In 2024, India imported about 87% of its total oil needs, and this could rise to 92% by 2035. However, India’s refining capacity is also increasing — from 6 million barrels per day in 2024 to an estimated 7.5 million by 2035. This will allow India not only to meet domestic demand but also to become a major exporter of refined fuel in Asia.

What About Natural Gas Consumption?

The IEA predicts that India’s natural gas demand will nearly double by 2035, reaching 140 billion cubic meters. The expansion of city gas networks and industrial gas usage will play a major role. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports are also projected to rise from 35 bcm in 2024 to 50 bcm by 2035. This shift shows India’s growing focus on cleaner energy sources while still depending heavily on fossil fuels for industrial needs.

Will Coal Still Dominate India’s Energy Mix?

Even as global coal consumption declines, India will continue to rely on it to meet its energy demand. The IEA expects India’s coal production to increase by nearly 50 million tons by 2035. This growth will help reduce coal imports and sustain power generation for industries. Coal India Limited is expanding its Gevra mine to 70 million tons per year, making it Asia’s largest coal mine, while 36 new mines are expected to open in the next five years.

What Does This Mean For Global Energy Trends?

The shift from China to India as the center of oil demand marks a major turning point in global energy markets. In the past decade, China accounted for over 75% of global oil demand growth, but now India is taking that role. Experts say India’s rise shows how developing economies are driving the next phase of global industrialization, where transport, manufacturing, and urbanization are the key growth engines.

Can India Balance Growth With Sustainability?

While India’s growing oil and coal use could power its economy, it also poses environmental challenges. The government is investing in biofuels, solar, and electric mobility to balance economic needs with climate goals. Still, by 2035, India will remain the world’s most significant force in oil demand-a reflection of its unstoppable growth and its central role in shaping the world’s future energy story.