Trump Tariffs Fail To Hurt India As SBI Report Shows Positive Export Growth

Business News: According to the SBI Research study, high U.S. tariffs imposed during the Trump administration did not significantly damage India’s export performance. While sectors like textiles, jewellery and marine products—especially shrimp—faced pressure, overall exports remained steady. Between April and September FY26, exports reached 220 billion dollars, up 2.9% from 214 billion last year. The report states that despite global uncertainty, India stayed resilient and avoided major trade setbacks.

How Has Export Performance Shifted In The U.S. Market?

Exports to the United States increased 13% to 45 billion dollars in the same period. However, America’s share in India’s total exports declined from July 2025 onwards, reaching only 15% by September. Marine exports to the U.S. dropped from 20% to 15%, and the share of precious stones fell sharply from 37% to just 6%. This indicates tariffs affected selective sectors but did not destabilise overall trade momentum.

Which Countries Saw Higher Indian Export Growth?

India strategically diversified its export market regions. Strong growth was recorded in the UAE, China, Vietnam, Japan, Hong Kong, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nigeria. For both marine products and ready-made cotton garments, higher market share was observed. The SBI report suggests that some exports may be indirectly routed to the U.S. via countries like Australia, whose import share of precious stones increased from 2% to 9%.

What Support Did The Government Provide To Exporters?

To minimise the impact of tariffs, the Indian government approved support worth ₹45,060 crore, including ₹20,000 crore in credit guarantee. This measure helped exporters offset extended cost pressures. Despite global financial fluctuations, the rupee dipped slightly to 89.49 against the U.S. dollar but remained manageable due to policy support.

How Did Global Financial Stress Affect Trade Stability?

Although a 12% year-on-year export decline was seen in September alone, accumulated growth over six months remained positive. The resilience came from alternative market penetration and better export management. Financial analysts affirm that India’s approach helped maintain a balanced external sector despite international trade disruption.

What Does The Report Say About Fiscal Deficit Trends?

India’s fiscal deficit dropped to 0.2% of GDP in the first quarter of FY26, compared to 0.9% last year. This improvement was supported by service exports and higher remittances. SBI expects a marginal increase mid-year but predicts a positive balance before year-end.

What Is The Trade Outlook For The Coming Months?

The bank estimates a full-year deficit at 1.0–1.3% of GDP, with a balance of payment gap of around 10 billion dollars. Analysts believe that India’s strategy of diversification, financial support and policy confidence will help sustain export stability. Experts conclude that India absorbed tariff shocks better than expected and did not suffer significant trade loss.