India facing new threat in Bay of Bengal amid Israel-Iran war; how will this hurt Indian interests?

Beijing: Before attacking Taiwan, does China want to engage India on multiple fronts? This is because China knows that the biggest threat to it in the event of an attack on Taiwan will be from India. China knows that India, not the United States, poses the greatest threat to it. Therefore, it wants to engage India from the Himalayas to the sea.

In the Himalayas, China is doing this with Pakistan, while at sea, it is doing so with countries like Bangladesh and the Maldives. Bangladesh has begun rebuilding relations with Pakistan, and China is playing a role in this. This increases the risk of India being embroiled not only on the China-Pakistan front, but also on the third front, Bangladesh. In this context, not only the Indian Ocean but also the Bay of Bengal has become increasingly strategically important for India. This significantly increases the responsibility of the Indian Navy.

How is China engaging India from the Himalayas to the sea?

The QUAD alliance of the United States, Australia, Japan, and India has weakened during Donald Trump's second term. This is a great opportunity for China. By joining forces with Bangladesh, it could strengthen its position in the Bay of Bengal. This would pose a significant threat to India's security. If Donald Trump continues with this policy, India's problem lies in the fact that instead of engaging China on multiple fronts, it could find itself embroiled in multiple fronts: China to the north, Pakistan to the west, and Bangladesh, which borders China and Pakistan, to the east.

Former US military officer Wolfgang Peterman writes on the War on the Rocks website that this strategy will significantly benefit China in the event of a future attack on Taiwan. In such a scenario, China will face significantly less pressure from the Indian front. It will not need to deploy as many of its military assets in the Indian Ocean or the Bay of Bengal, as Pakistan and Bangladesh can handle this task. Thus, it can deploy its forces to counter the US in the Western Pacific, from the South China Sea to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, or even the Korean Peninsula.

What strategy is China pursuing in the Bay of Bengal?

Military Agreements with Bangladesh: China has become the largest source of funding for the modernization of the Bangladesh Navy, including the delivery of Type 035G diesel-electric attack submarines.

Submarine Base Construction: China is providing funding and technical assistance for the construction of a submarine facility near Cox's Bazar.

BRI Projects: By including two of Bangladesh's main ports, Chattogram and Mongla, in China's Belt and Road Initiative, the Chinese Navy's range is being expanded there.

String of Pearls: China is increasing its investment and naval presence in Bangladesh, a "String of Pearls" designed to counter India, with Bangladesh being the last link in this chain.

Bangladesh Naval Support: After Pakistan and Sri Lanka, China is now making Bangladesh a part of its naval ecosystem. By doing this, China can send its ships and logistics when needed.

Three-Pronged Maritime Pressure on India: Just as India is surrounded by China and Pakistan on land, India is now facing a three-front pressure at sea as well. This forces the Indian Navy to deploy more military resources to defend its own coasts.

Is China implementing the Pakistan model in Bangladesh?

Pakistan now only purchases Chinese weapons. A report by the defense website War on the Rocks states that China is planning to do the same in Bangladesh. For example, Pakistan operates Chinese J-10CE fighter jets, which it used against Indian Rafales during the May 2025 conflict. These aircraft were equipped with Chinese PL-15 missiles.

If Bangladesh also purchases Chinese fighter jets and missiles, China will significantly enhance its air-combat package in India's eastern region. The report claims that China has approved the sale of 20 J-10CE fighter jets to Bangladesh for $2.2 billion. The Navbharat Times does not confirm this.

Wolfgang Petermann writes that the combination of Chinese weapons, the Pakistani military, and Bangladesh creates a cocktail that has the potential to trouble India. This could severely entangle India from the Bay of Bengal to the Indian Ocean. For India, this means focusing on two fronts rather than considering the Western Theater as the primary axis, and being very careful in the distribution of its military assets. Between 2020 and 2024, Pakistan was the largest buyer of Chinese weapons, and now Bangladesh has become the second largest buyer. This is part of a similar pattern of China that India needs to be wary of.