Trump and Modi’s Secret Oil Bargain Sparks Trade Deal Drama, Russia Feels the Heat Rising

International News: US President Donald Trump disclosed his direct talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, hinting at a dramatic shift in India’s trade and energy policies. Trump claimed Modi assured him that New Delhi would gradually reduce crude oil imports from Russia, aligning more with American supplies. Russia currently fulfills nearly one-third of India’s oil needs, but Washington is keen on curbing Moscow’s leverage. India has repeatedly defended its purchases as purely economic, but Trump’s statements suggest a new level of political pressure shaping energy choices.

Tariff Tensions and Reciprocal Measures

Trade ties between the two nations have been strained. The US imposed a punitive 25 percent levy on Indian exports, on top of reciprocal tariffs India announced earlier this year. Trump now signals that Washington could ease such barriers if India scales down Russian crude imports. For India, the challenge lies in balancing affordable energy access with protecting its export competitiveness. Officials are pushing for periodic tariff reviews within the agreement, hoping to soften the blow of sudden duties and safeguard domestic industries.

Agricultural Markets in the Spotlight

Agriculture has become a critical bargaining chip in these negotiations. India is weighing the option of importing larger volumes of non-genetically modified American corn and soymeal. Currently, quotas cap corn imports at 0.5 million tonnes annually with a 15 percent duty. The poultry, dairy, and ethanol sectors in India are demanding more feedstock, creating room for Washington’s entry. Negotiations are also advancing on soymeal imports, though disputes remain over dairy tariffs. The US continues to press for reduced duties on high-end cheese and milk products, but Indian negotiators remain cautious to protect local farmers.

ASEAN Summit Stage for Breakthrough

The ASEAN Summit later this month could serve as the platform for unveiling the much-anticipated deal. Trump and Modi are scheduled to meet during the event, raising hopes of a breakthrough. For Washington, the pact represents a strategic milestone, binding India closer to US trade interests while isolating Russia. For New Delhi, it is a balancing act—showcasing progress on international partnerships while ensuring domestic producers are not undermined. The global spotlight will be on the leaders as they navigate this delicate compromise.

Gradual Shift Away from Russian Oil

Despite Trump’s confident assertions, Indian officials have been far more guarded. They acknowledge informing Moscow about a gradual reduction in oil imports but stress that the transition depends on viable alternatives. Russia has been offering heavy discounts since the Ukraine war, making its oil attractive to India’s refiners. The US, while pushing New Delhi to shift, has yet to match those discounts. Analysts argue that any meaningful cut in Russian oil purchases by India will be a slow and calculated process rather than a sudden halt.

Washington’s Strategic Bargain

The White House appears ready to grant trade concessions in return for India’s cooperation on energy. American ethanol exports could find new buyers in India, while state-run oil companies in New Delhi may be informally nudged to diversify toward US crude. The deal, if finalized, could become a model of economic diplomacy—where energy, agriculture, and tariffs are woven into a single geopolitical fabric. Trump’s remarks at the White House Diwali celebration reflect this vision of trade-driven strategy.

India’s Balancing Act Ahead

India’s external affairs ministry, however, has distanced itself from Trump’s sweeping claims, noting no official commitment has been made to halt Russian oil. Officials emphasize that purchases will continue if economically viable. This underlines the complexity of India’s position—balancing global alliances, securing affordable energy, and protecting its agricultural sector. With the ASEAN Summit approaching, the Modi government faces a defining moment: how to honor Washington’s expectations without burning bridges with Moscow or hurting its own domestic market.