India’s Delicate Balancing Act: Friendship Tested Amid Iran-Israel Conflict

International News: The recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran have added fuel to an already volatile global landscape, transforming diplomatic tensions into a full-blown military confrontation. What began as a face-off over Iran’s nuclear ambitions has now turned into a high-stakes conflict with missiles and drones flying across borders. Israel has struck several strategic locations in Iran, including military bases and nuclear facilities in the capital, Tehran. In retaliation, Iran has launched missile and drone attacks on Israeli targets, declaring an open war.

This war is no longer limited to tit-for-tat military actions. If it escalates further, it risks dragging in global powers like the United States, China, and Russia. With the world already divided due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this new front in West Asia threatens to polarize global alliances even further. Located at a strategic intersection of global trade routes, Iran holds the power to disrupt international commerce, especially through the narrow Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global oil supply.

Israel’s Technological Superiority vs Iran’s Proxy Power

Israel, with its cutting-edge military technology and superior intelligence capabilities, is striking with precision. Its use of fifth-generation F-35 stealth fighter jets has allowed it to carry out high-risk missions deep inside Iranian territory. These jets, coupled with Israel’s Iron Dome and multi-layered air defense systems, give it a significant edge on the battlefield.

On the other hand, Iran lacks modern air power and relies heavily on its missile and drone programs. Due to years of economic sanctions, Iran’s air force operates largely outdated aircraft. However, its strength lies in its asymmetric warfare strategy—leveraging regional proxy groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. While Israel has weakened Hamas and Hezbollah significantly since October 7, 2024, the Houthis still possess the capability to launch ballistic missile attacks against Israel.

Iran’s Shahid drones and medium-range ballistic missiles—some with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers—underscore its ability to project power despite limited conventional resources.

Global Alliances: The World Takes Sides

Israel continues to receive unwavering support from the United States, both in terms of weaponry and intelligence sharing. European powers like the UK and France also stand aligned with Israel. Even many Gulf countries, while publicly maintaining neutrality, harbor deep concerns over Iran's nuclear program and are likely to back Israel indirectly if the conflict broadens.

Iran, under heavy U.S. and European sanctions, has turned to Russia and China for strategic partnerships. It has already supplied Shahid drones to Russia, which were used in the Ukraine war. If Moscow and Beijing decide to provide military support to Iran—whether in the form of weapons, satellite intelligence, or economic lifelines—the scale and duration of the conflict could increase substantially. Still, when it comes to global diplomatic support, Israel currently enjoys a more favorable position.

India’s Diplomatic Tightrope

For India, the escalating tension presents a significant foreign policy and economic challenge. India enjoys strong defense ties with Israel, sourcing advanced weapon systems, drone technologies, and cybersecurity tools. At the same time, Iran remains a vital partner in India's regional connectivity strategy. Through the Chabahar Port, India aims to establish direct access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.

However, the biggest concern lies in energy security. Over two-thirds of India’s crude oil imports and more than half of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption in this maritime route due to the conflict could severely affect India’s fuel supplies and energy prices.

Rising Oil Prices: Inflation and Economic Risk

Global financial institutions, including JP Morgan, have warned that the Iran-Israel war could drive crude oil prices up to $120 per barrel. Such a surge would strain India's current account deficit, weaken the rupee, and push inflation to uncomfortable levels. Increased fuel costs would impact household budgets, transportation, and production, triggering a ripple effect throughout the economy.

Companies would face higher input costs, consumer spending could contract, and the Reserve Bank of India might be forced to adjust monetary policy to control inflation—all of which could slow economic growth in the near term.

A Looming Global Crisis?

The Iran-Israel conflict is no longer a localized dispute; it’s a flashpoint with the potential to reshape global order. If global powers become directly involved, it could trigger a chain reaction reminiscent of the early 20th-century alliances that led to world wars. While full-scale global war remains a worst-case scenario, the signs of international polarization are already evident. For India, this is a time for strategic caution, calibrated diplomacy, and agile decision-making. It must protect its energy interests, maintain balanced relations with both Iran and Israel, and avoid entanglement in power bloc rivalries.

The coming weeks will be crucial. Whether this remains a regional conflict or transforms into a global geopolitical earthquake depends on the restraint and diplomacy of nations involved.