Bihar Elections: NDA Sweeps OBC Votes, Mahagathbandhan’s Muslim-Backward Unity Crumbles

Patna: As soon as the voting for the second phase of the Bihar Assembly elections ended on Tuesday, the exit polls turned the political equations upside down. According to the Matrice-India TV survey, the N.D.A. alliance is expected to get 147-167 seats, while the Grand Alliance is expected to get only 70-90. Jan Suraj got 0-2 seats, and the rest got 2-8 seats.

Which party got the benefit?

According to reports, the caste matrix benefited BJP-JDU. NDA also had dominance among OBC and SC/ST. But the Grand Alliance could not keep its core vote bank of Muslims and OBCs united and suffered a severe blow. The results are to be declared on November 14; till then, these polls are increasing the heartbeat of politics.

What is the secret of support?

It is clear from the poll that 51% of OBC voters voted for NDA. While the Grand Alliance got only 40% of the votes. Analysis says that Tejashwi Yadav's RJD fielded 67 Yadav candidates, but Nitish Kumar's JDU won in EBC (36%) and BC (27%). Core OBC groups like Kurmi-Koeri preferred NDA because Nitish got the credit for increasing reservation after the caste survey. Polarization of backward votes was in favor of NDA, and the unity of the Grand Alliance failed. Voting turnout in the second phase was 68.79%, while the average voting was 66.93%.

Why is there a sound of defeat for Mahagathbandhan?

The Grand Alliance has strong 78% support among Muslim voters (15-17% of the population), but this alone was not enough. The Grand Alliance bet on the Muslim-Yadav (MY) axis, but the 51% inclination of the OBCs towards the NDA spoiled the mathematics. A new M-Y axis is emerging, but Lalu's VIP (Mukesh Sahni) strategy failed in EBC outreach. Lalu lured EBC with the post of Deputy CM, but Nitish's 'EBC Guardian' image outweighed it.

Why did 85% of the backward population bow to the NDA?

The Bihar Caste Survey (2023) revealed that 85% of the population belonged to OBC/EBC/SC/ST—EBC 36%, BC 27%, SC 19.7%, ST 1.7%, and General 15.5%. After the survey, 75% reservation pushed EBC-OBC towards NDA. In 17 surveys, NDA got 154 seats and 43% vote share. Grand Alliance has 38% of the votes, but the core vote is split.

Is the Nitish government's return confirmed?

All polls are predicting an NDA government. BJP is expected to get 65-73 seats, JDU 67-75, HAM 4-5, and LJP 8-10 seats. Grand alliance partners RJD are expected to get 50-60 seats and Congress 2-4 seats. NDA may get 4% more vote share. Will MGB's OBC-Muslim failure become a lesson for 2025? The results will tell.