Early Monsoon Alert: Experts Predict May 27 Arrival for Delhi, Kerala

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted an early southwest monsoon, set to reach Kerala by May 27, 2025, five days ahead of its usual June 1 onset. Experts predict the rains will advance to Delhi by early June, driven by favorable oceanic conditions. This early arrival promises relief from blistering heat but raises concerns about flooding and agricultural planning.

Favorable Conditions for Early Onset
IMD chief Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra attributes the early monsoon to a neutral El Niño phase and cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal. The absence of El Niño, combined with a cooling La Niña trend, strengthens monsoon currents. The IMD’s forecast, with a ±4-day error margin, predicts Kerala’s coastal regions receiving initial showers by May 27, followed by a swift northward progression. Delhi, typically rain-soaked by late June, may see showers by June 2, aided by pre-monsoon thunderstorms already impacting northern India.

Impact on Agriculture and Economy
The early monsoon is a boon for India’s Kharif crop season, critical for rice, cotton, and sugarcane farmers. Kerala’s farmers, reliant on timely rains, welcome the forecast, as do northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. However, experts warn of potential over-saturation in low-lying areas, urging farmers to delay sowing until rainfall stabilizes. The monsoon contributes 75% of India’s annual rainfall, driving economic growth, but excessive rains could disrupt supply chains, as seen in Bengaluru’s recent flooding.

Regional Weather Outlook
While Kerala anticipates heavy showers, Delhi and northern states face pre-monsoon heatwaves, with temperatures hitting 42°C. The early rains could cool these regions, but urban centers like Bengaluru and Chennai must brace for waterlogging. Northeastern states, including Assam, expect intense rainfall, raising flood risks. The IMD advises civic bodies to clear drains and prepare disaster response teams.

Preparing for the Monsoon
Authorities are urging proactive measures, from reinforcing embankments in flood-prone areas to educating farmers on crop protection. Urban residents are advised to stock essentials and avoid travel during heavy downpours. As India awaits the monsoon’s early arrival, the forecast signals hope for agriculture but demands vigilance to mitigate potential disruptions.