Explainer: Why Are BJP and Akali Dal Still Struggling to Seal an Alliance in Punjab?

Chandigarh: Before the Punjab Assembly elections 2027, there is intense discussion about reviving the old alliance between BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal. Both parties have been together for a long time, but in 2020, Akali Dal broke ties with NDA on the issue of agricultural laws. Now amid the changed political equations, there are indications of talks between the leaders of both parties. However, the path of alliance is not looking easy yet.

Why was the matter stuck on seat distribution?

The biggest question in the alliance talks is the distribution of 117 assembly seats. BJP now considers its position in Punjab stronger than before and wants to contest elections on more seats. On the other hand, Akali Dal is also in no mood to give up its traditional holding areas. According to reports, the two parties are yet to agree on the number of seats and who will field candidates on which seats.

Has the electoral mathematics of BJP and Akali Dal changed?

After the alliance broke in 2020, both parties contested the 2022 assembly elections and 2024 Lok Sabha elections separately. Both had to suffer losses due to this. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP's vote percentage in Punjab reached around 18 percent, while Akali Dal was reduced to around 13 percent. These figures are now playing an important role in the seat negotiations between the two parties.

Is BJP now not ready to return to the role of 'younger brother'?

In the old alliance, BJP was mainly in urban seats and Akali Dal was strong in rural and Sikh dominated areas. The vote banks of both the parties were considered complementary to each other. But in the last few years, BJP has tried to increase its presence in rural areas of Punjab also. The party no longer wants to be limited to just urban seats. This change is making the terms of the alliance more complicated than before.

Is there any difference of opinion on making Sukhbir Badal the face of the CM?

Apart from seats, the question of power sharing and the post of Chief Minister is also being said to be important obstacle in the path of the alliance. According to latest reports, BJP is not comfortable with accepting Sukhbir Singh Badal as the chief ministerial face of the alliance. On the other hand, the question of leadership is very important politically for Akali Dal. In such a situation, deciding who will have the role of chief minister and deputy chief minister after the elections can become a big issue of discussion.

Why is the BJP facing the challenge of training its own leaders and workers?

After 2020, many leaders of Akali Dal and Congress have joined BJP. There are also leaders among them whose political history has been against the Badal family. It will not be easy to bring such leaders and old Akali workers on one platform. Apart from this, how much work the local organisations of both the parties do for each other's candidates at the time of elections can also be decisive in the success of the alliance.

How important is it for Akali Dal to join hands with BJP?

Akali Dal is currently facing the challenge of saving its traditional political base in Punjab. Along with the activeness of new groups in sectarian politics, Aam Aadmi Party and Congress are also present in their areas of influence. In such a situation, Akali Dal can get the benefit of urban votes and organisational strength by coordinating with BJP. At the same time, Akali Dal can become a way for BJP to reach out to rural and Sikh voters. 

Will the two parties finally be able to reach an agreement?

At present, different messages are coming out publicly from both parties. Some BJP leaders have talked about contesting elections on all 117 seats, while on the other hand, there are reports of talks regarding seats behind the scenes. In such a situation, the final decision will depend on the consensus on the number of seats, selection of candidates and question of leadership. It is certain that if BJP and Akali Dal come together again, the entire political equation of 2027 Punjab Assembly elections can change.