Five Instances When Exit Polls Got it Wrong

2024/06/02 14:02:31 IST

What is the methodology behind conducting exit polls?

    Exit polls provide a snapshot of voter sentiment by interviewing voters immediately after they cast their ballots at polling stations during elections.

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1) Lok Sabha polls 2004

    Despite high popularity of then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, early elections were called with BJP confident of victory. Exit polls predicted 240-275 seats for BJP-NDA, but they won only 187 seats, with Congress winning 216.

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2) Bihar Assembly elections 2020

    Most exit polls forecasted a win for Tejashwi Yadavs Mahagatbandhan, but BJP-JD(U) emerged victorious.

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3) Bihar Assembly elections 2015

    Exit polls failed to predict the victory of RJD-JDU-Congress coalition, favoring BJP. Grand Alliance won 178 seats out of 243.

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4) West Bengal Assembly elections 2021

    Despite exit polls favoring BJP, Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee won a landslide victory with 213 out of 294 seats, while BJP secured only 77.

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5) Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls 2017

    Predicted a hung assembly with BJP as largest party, but BJP secured a landslide victory with 312 out of 403 seats.

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Exit Poll in 2019

    In 2019, a big portion of exit polls forecasted the re-election of the BJP-led NDA government. However, the projections for the BJP-led coalition varied widely across surveys, demonstrating discrepancies when compared to the actual election results.

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