Five Instances When Exit Polls Got it Wrong
What is the methodology behind conducting exit polls?
Exit polls provide a snapshot of voter sentiment by interviewing voters immediately after they cast their ballots at polling stations during elections.
1) Lok Sabha polls 2004
Despite high popularity of then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, early elections were called with BJP confident of victory. Exit polls predicted 240-275 seats for BJP-NDA, but they won only 187 seats, with Congress winning 216.
2) Bihar Assembly elections 2020
Most exit polls forecasted a win for Tejashwi Yadavs Mahagatbandhan, but BJP-JD(U) emerged victorious.
3) Bihar Assembly elections 2015
Exit polls failed to predict the victory of RJD-JDU-Congress coalition, favoring BJP. Grand Alliance won 178 seats out of 243.
4) West Bengal Assembly elections 2021
Despite exit polls favoring BJP, Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee won a landslide victory with 213 out of 294 seats, while BJP secured only 77.
5) Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls 2017
Predicted a hung assembly with BJP as largest party, but BJP secured a landslide victory with 312 out of 403 seats.
Exit Poll in 2019
In 2019, a big portion of exit polls forecasted the re-election of the BJP-led NDA government. However, the projections for the BJP-led coalition varied widely across surveys, demonstrating discrepancies when compared to the actual election results.