China and Pakistan Forge New Alliance Blueprint to Bypass India and Revive South Asian Influence

International News: As SAARC remains dormant since 2016, China and Pakistan are moving forward with plans to form a new regional alliance without India. A recent meeting in Kunming included Bangladesh, sparking speculation about a fresh grouping involving Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Afghanistan. Bangladesh, however, denied any political intent. The initiative is viewed as an attempt to counter India’s regional influence. Though India may be invited to join, its participation is considered unlikely due to ongoing tensions with both nations.

China-Pakistan’s Strategic Shift

Amid escalating regional friction and the inactivity of SAARC, China and Pakistan are said to be pushing forward with plans to create a new regional alliance that sidelines India. According to a report by Pakistan’s The Express Tribune, both nations view the formation of a fresh platform for regional cooperation and connectivity as a pressing need. Discussions are said to have reached an advanced stage, with a key meeting taking place on June 19 in Kunming, China. Bangladesh was present at the talks, alongside the core partners—China and Pakistan—indicating that efforts are underway to court South Asian countries into this emerging alliance.

The Target: SAARC’s Vacuum and India’s Isolation

Once envisioned as a powerful regional bloc, SAARC has been largely dormant since 2016 following India’s boycott of the Islamabad summit after the deadly Uri terror attack, which claimed 17 Indian soldiers. Since then, the summit hasn’t been rescheduled, and trust among member states has diminished. China and Pakistan appear eager to fill this void by drawing in former SAARC members like Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Afghanistan. Their goal seems not only to revive multilateral cooperation in the region but also to create a counterweight to India's influence by forming a China-backed bloc.

What Happened in Kunming?

This wasn’t the first gathering—similar discussions took place in May, involving China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, focusing on expanding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and strengthening regional cooperation under Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. The recent meeting’s core agenda reportedly included inviting other former SAARC nations into the fold, creating a potential framework for a new multilateral structure.

Bangladesh Pushes Back, Denies Alliance Formation

Despite its presence in Kunming, Bangladesh has strongly refuted claims of any emerging political or strategic alliance involving China and Pakistan. Tawfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury, energy adviser to Bangladesh’s Prime Minister, clarified that the Kunming meeting was not political in nature and insisted there was no move toward forming any new bloc. “It was an official-level meeting, not a political initiative,” he said. Dhaka’s response appears carefully measured, likely to avoid offending either side while keeping its diplomatic options open in a volatile region.

Will India Join or Stay Away?

Diplomatic sources cited in the report suggest that China and Pakistan may eventually extend an invitation to India to join this new grouping. However, New Delhi is unlikely to respond positively given the deep strategic mistrust it holds toward both nations. India has consistently voiced its concerns over China's aggressive regional posturing and Pakistan’s history of supporting cross-border terrorism. While China and Pakistan promote this new initiative as inclusive and cooperative, for India, it could be a geopolitical maneuver aimed at marginalizing its influence in South Asia.