Civil war fears in Afghanistan as tension rises between Taliban factions; questions over China's role

Kabul: A power struggle is raging within the Taliban, which controls Afghanistan. Two factions have emerged within the Taliban, which are challenging each other. One faction is led by the Taliban's Supreme Leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, while the other is headed by the Taliban government's Interior Minister and leader of the Haqqani Network, Sirajuddin Haqqani. 

What do we know about the competing Taliban factions?

Akhundzada is governing Aghanistan from Kandahar, while Haqqani, who is based in Kabul, is directly defying his orders. This internal conflict within the Taliban appears to be directly impacting China. Just a day earlier, a bomb exploded at a Chinese restaurant in Kabul, killing several people.

Who has China aligned with?

According to a media report, Hibatullah Akhundzada's leadership in Kandahar considers China a crucial economic and diplomatic partner. Conversely, Sirajuddin Haqqani's leadership in Kabul views China's growing role as a direct threat to its own influence. The report, citing sources, states that Kandahar wants Chinese involvement to continue and expand, particularly in mining, oil, and infrastructure projects that provide quick revenue for the Taliban administration.

Unlike Western investors, Chinese companies do not attach human rights conditions to their deals and provide a degree of international legitimacy. These factors strengthen Akhundzada's position both domestically and internationally. An Afghan citizen named Bashir Noorzai is frequently mentioned in connection with Chinese investments in Afghanistan. Bashir Noorzai is a powerful tribal leader and a trusted associate of Akhundzada from the influential Noorzai tribal network.

Who was the target of the Kabul bombing?

After being released in a prisoner exchange with the US in 2022, Noorzai has reportedly emerged as a key intermediary for incoming Chinese investments in Kabul. Taliban sources describe him as the main channel through which Chinese capital is flowing into Afghanistan. According to these sources, the attack in Kabul the previous day was primarily aimed not just at Chinese nationals, but specifically at Noorzaei. Disrupting his role is seen as a way to weaken Kandahar's economic influence.

How is the Akhundzada faction increasing its influence?

From the perspective of the Haqqani network, Chinese money has disrupted the internal balance of power. 

"For the Taliban, money is everything right now, and Chinese funding is strengthening Kandahar," an official told the media. 

“They believe that undermining Chinese confidence through repeated attacks could slow down or halt projects, forcing the Kandahar leaders back to the negotiating table on power-sharing and resource allocation.”