Who Will Succeed Ayatollah Khamenei? The Global Stakes of Iran’s Supreme Leadership Transition

Iran-Israel conflict: As tensions between Iran and Israel continue to escalate, a critical question is gaining traction on the global stage: If 85-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei steps down or passes away, who will become Iran's next Supreme Leader? Khamenei, now in the twilight of his life, has recently faced a series of political and military crises that have further intensified speculation about the future of Iran’s leadership.

The urgency of this question grew sharper after senior Israeli leaders issued direct threats against Khamenei. In a recent interview, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remarked that eliminating Khamenei could mark the end of decades-old hostility between Iran and Israel. The very next day, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz went a step further, warning that Khamenei could meet the same fate as former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.

In light of these developments, international analysts and intelligence agencies have begun to scrutinize potential successors more closely. The authority to appoint Iran’s Supreme Leader rests with the Assembly of Experts, a powerful body of 88 senior clerics. Though elected by the public, all candidates are thoroughly vetted by the Guardian Council. The selection process is conducted entirely behind closed doors and places emphasis on religious legitimacy, political alignment, and the ability to ensure institutional stability.

Potential Successors: Who Could Become Iran’s Next Supreme Leader?

1. Mojtaba Khamenei

The most prominent name being discussed is that of Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Ayatollah Khamenei. Over the years, he has played a key behind-the-scenes role in Iran's political structure. Known for his close ties with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and key religious institutions, Mojtaba's deep-rooted influence positions him as a frontrunner in the succession race.

2. Alireza Arafi

A respected scholar and a close confidant of Khamenei, Arafi holds multiple influential roles. He is the Vice Chairman of the Assembly of Experts and a member of the Guardian Council. His strong religious credentials, combined with political experience, make him a credible contender.

3. Ali Asghar Hejazi

An expert in national security and intelligence, Hejazi has been instrumental in shaping Iran’s internal and external strategic decisions. Though he operates mostly from the shadows, his influence within Iran’s intelligence apparatus is well acknowledged.

4. Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i

A longstanding figure in Iran’s judicial system, Mohseni-Eje’i has served as Intelligence Minister, Attorney General, and Judiciary Spokesperson. His authoritative persona and administrative experience provide him with the stature needed for such a crucial leadership role.

5. Other Notable Contenders

Other seasoned political figures who could emerge as compromise candidates include Mohammad Golpayegani, Ali Akbar Velayati, Kamal Kharrazi, and Ali Larijani. These individuals bring a mix of religious scholarship, diplomatic acumen, and domestic policy experience to the table.

Why the Next Supreme Leader Matters for the World

In Iran’s theocratic-political system, the Supreme Leader is not merely a spiritual authority but the ultimate decision-maker in all matters of state. From commanding the armed forces to overseeing the judiciary, media, religious institutions, and foreign affairs, the Supreme Leader holds unparalleled power.

A leadership transition would mark a seismic shift in Iran’s domestic and foreign policy. It could either usher in a period of reform or harden the regime’s stance, depending on who is chosen. The outcome won’t just affect Iran—it could redefine the geopolitical dynamics of the entire Middle East.

How smooth or turbulent this transition turns out to be remains to be seen. But one fact is clear: the successor to Ayatollah Khamenei will influence not just the future of Iran, but the strategic balance of West Asia and beyond.