Tensions Rise as Russia Prepares for Potential Nuclear Test in Response to US

Russia: Donald Trump announced on his social media platforms that the US will soon resume nuclear testing—following which Russia has also started the process of preparing its own proposal on the instructions of Vladimir Putin. 

Sergei Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister, said the Security Council meeting on November 5 had approved implementing Putin's directive and that proposals were now being prepared. Lavrov also said that it was not clear from the US side whether Trump meant a full-scale nuclear test or a subcritical/auxiliary test.

Why did this step happen?

This statement of Trump has forced Russia to react. Trump said the US would test “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—the meaning of which is unclear but indicates the US may depart from the testing moratorium that has been in place for the past 30 years. 

If seen from Russia's side, he has said that if America conducts tests, Russia will also take steps from its side. Putin expressed the same sentiment, and according to Lavrov, the proposals are ready.

What are the real situations?

The US has not conducted a full nuclear test since 1992. Russia has not conducted any tests since 1990, when the Soviet Union disintegrated. Russia has said it has received no clear evidence or communications from the US on the matter—it remains uncertain what type of testing Trump referred to. 

Analysts believe that if testing resumes, it will be a major blow to the global nuclear control system and may scare other countries into starting the same sequence.

What does it mean?

The move is not just a bilateral dispute between the US and Russia—it is a sign that there may be cracks in the old “test-moratorium” model. If major nuclear powers were to conduct tests again, containment measures could be weakened, increasing unpredictable diplomatic and security risks. 

Additionally, this entire move could become a new source of tension amid security challenges such as the Ukraine war, the China-US-Russia triangle, and global terrorism.

What will we see next?

There will be clarity from the US on what type of test Trump has talked about—full explosive test, sub-critical test, or missile/carrier test. (Russia has not yet understood what Trump meant.)  Russia will complete its review of the proposals and decide where and what type of testing to conduct as a next step.

The response of other nuclear nations, including India, and global disarmament institutions and organizations will be important. It remains to be seen whether this move will inspire a new arms race or reestablishment of controls under international treaties.