Begusarai Assembly Seat: From Mini Moscow to BJP Bastion—Can the Opposition Break Through?

Begusarai Assembly Seat: The Begusarai assembly seat, known as the major industrial and urban center of Bihar, has always been extremely sensitive from a political point of view. Known as 'Mini Moscow,' this area has been a historical stronghold of leftist movements, but since 2010 it has become a stronghold of the BJP. As of the present date (21 October 2025), the nomination process has been completed and the election atmosphere has become increasingly heated. A total of 1314 candidates have contested for 121 seats (which includes Begusarai) in the first phase, but the main contest here seems to be triangular between NDA (BJP), Grand Alliance (RJD-Congress-Left Party) and Jan Suraj. Let's look at the key aspects.

Major issues

Apart from the old issues like traffic jams, inadequate drainage systems, waste management, migration due to lack of employment, property crime and better policing, some new dimensions have been added to the 2025 elections. Despite being close to Barauni Refinery, not getting enough jobs for the local youth remains a big challenge. moreover:

• Education and Health: Issues like lack of schools in rural areas (like the threat of a vote boycott due to non-construction of a school in Rachiahi village) and deaths of patients outside hospitals are emerging.
• Environment and Liquor Policy: Industrial pollution, collapsing bridges and deaths due to poisonous liquor are among the main agenda of the opposition.
• Corruption and Paper Leaks: Along with unemployment, exam paper leaks and allegations of corruption are affecting young voters the most.

These issues are at both urban and rural levels, and new parties like Jan Suraj are trying to attract the youth by raising them.

Vote counting

According to the Election Commission's final voter list of 30 September 2025, there are a total of 3.10 lakh voters (1.65 lakh male, 1.45 lakh female), which shows an increase of about 10 thousand from 2020. This is the seat with the largest number of voters in the district, where the average voting percentage remains between 52% and 55%. Updated estimates show that the share of young and female voters is increasing, which may encourage issue-based voting.

Caste Equations

The upper castes (Bhumihar-Vaishya) remain the strong base of the BJP, while the Yadavs, Muslims and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) play a decisive role. This equation remains unchanged in 2025, but Jan Suraj is targeting the EBC-youth vote. Smaller parties (like BSP) may divide the Bahujan votes. The challenge for the Grand Alliance is to completely unite the Left Vote Bank (CPI).

Details of previous wins and losses

This seat has been continuously held by BJP since 2010. Updated figures:

2020        Kundan Kumar (BJP)          4,554                                     Amita Bhushan (Congress)

2015        Amarendra Kumar (BJP)   4,000                                Amita Bhushan (Congress)

Congress had historically won this seat 8 times, but now its position has weakened.

Current Situation

The election atmosphere is exciting, but BJP's dominance seems to be intact. JDU suffered a major blow when four-time MLA Bogo Singh joined RJD. The dispute between RJD-Congress regarding seat sharing in the Grand Alliance is on the rise. Jan Suraj is trying to cut into young-educated voters, but its impact may be limited. Overall, the BJP is projected to get 40-45% of the vote share, while the opposition is in dire need of unity.