Kishanganj Battle: Mahagathbandhan or Owaisi’s AIMIM—Who Takes the Lead?

Patna: In the second phase of the Bihar Assembly elections 2025, four seats of Kishanganj district—Kishanganj, Thakurganj, Kochadhaman, and Bahadurganj—remain the center of political battle. It has a 70% Muslim population. In 2020, AIMIM won two of the five seats in Seemanchal, while Congress and RJD got one each. But this time there are chances of vote division due to conflict between the Mahaghatbandhan (RJD-Congress) and AIMIM, which can benefit BJP.

Why did the Mahaghatbandhan adopt former AIMIM MLAs?

The Mahaghatbandhan has made strategic changes in seat-sharing. On Kishanganj seat, Congress has given ticket to former AIMIM MLA Kamrul Hoda, who is contesting against BJP's Sweety Singh. In Thakurganj, RJD re-fielded sitting MLA Saud Alam, while in Kochadhaman, RJD chose former JD(U) MLA Mujahid Alam. Congress gave ticket to Musavveer Alam on Bahadurganj. RJD canceled the tickets of three sitting MLAs, leading to internal strife. Many AIMIM MLAs have joined RJD, but AIMIM claims that this is a strategy of 'vote loot'.

Why did Owaisi miss the opportunity to join hands with the Mahaghatbandhan?

In September, AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi had written a letter to RJD demanding six seats and also offered to join the alliance. But the Grand Alliance ignored it. Owaisi had clearly warned that BJP could benefit from this refusal. Recently, during the 'Seemanchal Nyay Yatra' taken out in Kishanganj, he directly challenged Tejashwi Yadav and countered his 'extremist' statement by saying that it is an insult to the people of Seemanchal. The resentment grew so much that AIMIM separated from the Grand Alliance and announced the formation of 'Grand Democratic Alliance' (GDA).

Will Kishanganj be transformed by 35 seats of GDA?

AIMIM has formed GDA in alliance with Chandrashekhar Azad's Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) and Swami Prasad Maurya's own Janata Party. In the seat distribution, AIMIM has got 35 seats, ASP 25 and AJP 4 seats. AIMIM has fielded advocate Shams Aghaz from Kishanganj. In 2020, AIMIM had won all five seats in Seemanchal, but later four MLAs switched to RJD. Now GDA is projecting itself as a new third front, focusing on the issues of Dalits, backward classes and minorities. Owaisi has also proposed 'Seemanchal Development Council' in Parliament, so that a voice can be raised at the national level on the plight of the area.

Why are Muslim voters stuck between 'Big RSS' vs 'Small RSS'?

There is a debate among Muslim voters in Seemanchal: BJP is being considered as 'Big RSS' and AIMIM is being considered as 'Small RSS'. When Prashant Kishore asked Owaisi to stay away from Bihar, Owaisi replied that he knew the ground reality here – migration of youth, unemployment. The Grand Alliance is accused of ignoring the demands of the Muslim leadership. Owaisi said he would represent Muslims by becoming the "son of Mohammed". This has increased vote polarization, and the role of Muslims will be decisive in voting on November 11.

Why can the result of Kishanganj elections benefit BJP?

BJP-JD(U) is getting stronger due to vote sharing. BJP's Sweety Singh in Kishanganj, JD(U's Gopal Agarwal in Thakurganj), Veena Devi in ​​Kochadhaman and BJP candidate in Bahadurganj are strong contenders. AIMIM's 'Patang Chaap' slogan has attracted the youth, but the traditional base of the Grand Alliance remains intact. Analysts say that if Muslim vote is divided 50-50, then NDA will get an indirect benefit. The results on November 14 will show whether Owaisi's 'game' has turned out to be a boomerang for the Grand Alliance.