Bihar Exit Poll Shock: NDA Breaks Into RJD’s Core Yadav Vote Bank, Stuns Analysts!

New Delhi: According to Today’s Chanakya’s Bihar Exit Poll 2025, NDA is projected to secure 23% of the Yadav votes, while the Mahagathbandhan (RJD-led alliance) retains 67%. Traditionally, Yadavs have been the backbone of RJD, loyal to Lalu Prasad Yadav’s politics for decades. However, the latest figures indicate that the BJP and its allies have succeeded in penetrating this base for the first time in a significant way.

How Did This Shift Surprise Analysts?

For years, Bihar’s Yadav voters have been viewed as a political fortress for the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). Any dent here was once unthinkable. But the data shows a changing sentiment among young Yadav voters, many of whom see the NDA as a party of opportunity rather than caste identity. This slow but steady shift is being credited to BJP’s deep outreach and strategic messaging at the grassroots level.

What About Muslim and Dalit Voters?

The same exit poll shows 12% of Muslim votes going to NDA — another rare phenomenon in Bihar’s political history. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan still dominates with 69% Muslim support. Among Scheduled Castes, NDA reportedly gained 58% of the votes, leaving 26% with the opposition alliance. This trend suggests that NDA’s social engineering strategy is working beyond its traditional voter base.

How Did Other Castes Vote This Time?

Upper-caste voters, including Brahmins, Baniyas, and Rajputs, overwhelmingly backed NDA with 63% support, while the Mahagathbandhan received 19%. Among OBC and EBC communities, NDA gained 55% compared to 24% for the opposition. These numbers reveal that NDA has successfully built a multi-caste coalition — something that was once considered nearly impossible in Bihar’s complex political landscape.

Did BJP’s Strategy Finally Pay Off?

Experts believe BJP’s long-term focus on Yadav inclusion may have started showing results. The party’s decision to make Mohan Yadav the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh earlier this year sent a strong message of Yadav representation in national politics. Since then, Mohan Yadav has been active in both Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, attending rallies and outreach programs aimed at Yadav voters. This visible inclusion seems to have softened RJD’s monopoly on the community.

What Does This Mean for Bihar Politics?

If the exit poll figures hold true, it would mark a historic shift in Bihar’s caste-based voting behavior. NDA’s success in winning nearly one-fourth of the Yadav vote would not only weaken RJD’s core strength but also reshape Bihar’s entire political arithmetic. The final results will decide whether this is a temporary trend or a long-term transformation in one of India’s most politically charged states.