Bihar’s Big Verdict Today: Will Nitish Stay Strong or Will Chirag and PK Change the Game?

Bihar: As the counting of votes progresses in Bihar on Friday, five big political stories will decide the impact of the entire election. The most important things in this are the future role of Nitish Kumar, the first electoral test of Jan Suraj, the credibility of Congress, the hold of Seemanchal-based parties, and the prestige of Chirag Paswan's party.

Will Nitish Kumar remain the face of NDA?

The biggest question before Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in this election is whether he will be able to preserve his old position in NDA. Now JDU is not a senior partner in NDA, so the party's seat count will decide its political weight. If JDU goes above its 2020 level of 43 seats, Nitish's hold will strengthen. But if BJP gets ahead of JDU, then questions may arise on Nitish's role.

Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraj Party is contesting the elections for the first time. For them it is more a question of credibility than election seats. If the party gets a good vote share or shows influence in close contests, it will give it a chance to become the third force in the state. A weak performance could leave him just a footnote.

Will Congress be able to strengthen its role?

Congress, which is contesting elections for about 60 seats, wants to create a new place for itself. This party, which has always been in the second row in the Grand Alliance, wants to increase its bargaining power by winning better seats this time. But if it disappoints again, its hold may weaken further despite Rahul Gandhi's Voter Adhikar Yatra.

What will be the role of smaller partners?

The social strategy of the Grand Alliance rests on small parties like Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and Indian Inclusive Party (IIP). Their ability to influence extremely backward class votes can change the electoral outcome. If successful, they will strengthen the social gathering of the opposition; if unsuccessful, the limitations of the Grand Alliance will be exposed.

How successful will Chirag Paswan's move be?

NDA has given 29 seats to LJP (Ram Vilas) this time, and it is expected to repeat the performance like Lok Sabha. If the party performs as per expectations, Chirag Paswan's stature in the NDA will further increase—which may make JDU uncomfortable. But poor results will raise questions on his aggressive politics and may change the equation in NDA.