Karnataka turns the tide: Survey reveals massive shift from Congress to BJP

Only two years after providing the Congress with a decisive mandate in the 2023 Karnataka Assembly elections, voters all over the state appear to be suffering from acute disillusionment. How things went so awry so quickly? An latest People's Pulse - Codemo survey indicates an astonishing political switchover, with BJP leapfrogging everywhere, across regions, castes, age groups, and even in the Congress's strongholds. If you'd like to know how promises became political pitfalls, and guarantees turned into grievances, then read on.

BJP doubles seat projection in just two years

In a sharp reversal from 2023, the BJP is projected to double its seat share if elections were held today. This dramatic swing is fueled by public backlash against Congress’s failed promises, economic mismanagement, and a growing yearning for stable governance. Congress's honeymoon period is over, and voter patience has hit rock bottom.

Vote share dynamics: BJP surges ahead

Voters have finally seen through the Congress's "guarantee" politics. BJP has now surpassed Congress in vote share, winning over the frustrated electorate. From city professionals to countryside farmers, the trend is evident: people are abandoning short-term populism for a long-term vision.

Broken promises: The reality behind the guarantees

Schemes such as Gruha Lakshmi, Shakti, and Yuva Nidhi have turned out to be more political gimmick than real relief. Their poor execution has sparked hike in basic services such as electricity, milk, and fuel. The Congress peddled promises and handed debt, making the middle class reel.

First-time voters opt for BJP

The biggest indictment of Congress is from the young. At 56% of 18-25 voters now supporting BJP, the message is unequivocal: the young desire opportunities and work, not empty promises. Congress's inability to implement the Yuva Nidhi scheme has resulted in a total loss of faith. Half of the 26-50 voters are now turning down Congress. The budget austerity in infrastructure, combined with inflation, has lost this key age group. The middle class has stopped trusting the economic agenda of Congress.

 BJP makes inroads in the heartland

Even in the historically Congress-biased rural Karnataka, the BJP has more than 52% support. The BJP as an urban-centric party canard has been effectively debunked with farmers and villagers clamoring for development rather than doles.

The Prime Minister's dominance across voter bases

PM Modi's popularity crosses party lines. 73.9% of BJP voters support him, and even 37.8% of Congress voters choose him ahead of their own leadership. 73.2% JD(S) voters also support Modi. Rahul Gandhi and Kharge fail to make any inroads even among their traditional constituencies.

Congress losing traditional support bases

Voter groups that were earlier Congress-friendly are switching to the BJP. Modi is in the lead among Kurubas (58%), Madigas (63.5%), Valmikis (72.1%), and others. Even Vokkaligas and Lingayats, though aggressively wooed by Congress leaders, are now going saffron way. Congress's vote-bank policy is boomeranging. Both Hindus and a large section of Christians are turning towards the development agenda of the BJP. Identity politics is being replaced by aspiration and empowerment.

Experts and farmers opt for growth over populism

BJP is in the lead with postgraduates (60.4%), farmers (+16.5% over Congress), and self-employed individuals. The educated and economically active class perceive the BJP as the growth party, stability party, and national pride party. Congress's reversal of pro-farmer programs such as PM-Kisan and Raita Vidya Nidhi has taken a tragic toll. Suicides are rising, and more than 54% of farmer votes have now turned to BJP. Farmers want action, not appeasement.

Caste Census gamble backfires on Congress

The caste census report that was leaked has generated more anger than representation. More than 75% of respondents disown its credibility. Old Congress supporters among SCs and STs are deserting in large numbers, blaming manipulation and betrayal. Congress's inability to protect housewives and pensioners has estranged two of the state's most vulnerable voter groups. Mismanagement of programmes such as Gruha Lakshmi and increasing cost of living have made them irate and disillusioned.

Karnataka's verdict is loud and clear

From young to old, rural heartland to urban tech corridor, the Congress has lost faith in all and sundry. While Modi keeps building confidence, the BJP is shaping up as the natural choice for a Karnataka seeking more than empty words. The scene is set for a political reboot in 2028.