UGC ACT 2026: Has UGC controversy ruined BJP's political chances in Uttar Pradesh? Know upper caste mood

New Delhi: The Supreme Court has temporarily stayed the new rules of the University Grants Commission (UGC). BJP leaders are welcoming the court's decision, but has this ended the party's challenge? Upper-caste organizations and students protesting the new UGC rules are not satisfied with just the court's stay. They say they will continue their protest until the UGC rules are completely withdrawn.

What is the UGC controversy?

The UGC controversy has become a major headache for the BJP, leaving them in a difficult predicament. Despite the Supreme Court's stay, organizations ranging from the Karni Sena and the All India Kshatriya Mahasabha to the Brahmin Mahasabha and the Parshuram Sena are vowing to continue their fight, from the streets to social media. This clearly indicates that the BJP's troubles are far from over.

Which is the state with biggest protests?

Uttar Pradesh has been the biggest center of protests against the UGC. There has been strong opposition within the UP BJP itself. Several local and district-level party leaders and office-bearers have even resigned from their posts. BJP leaders appear to be caught in a dilemma regarding the growing resentment among upper castes, while parties from the Samajwadi Party to the Bahujan Samaj Party are making calculated statements and playing political games.

What now for the BJP?

After the Supreme Court's stay, the government now has to respond. If the BJP government defends the new UGC rules, it will face the wrath of the upper castes. Upper-caste organizations have announced that they will continue their movement until March 19th. These organizations include not only Rajput, Brahmin, Kayastha, Vaishya, and Khatri communities but also upper-caste Muslim organizations.

On the other hand, if the government takes steps to withdraw the rules, it may face protests from Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Other Backward Classes. Thus, the BJP is caught in a double bind regarding the new UGC rules. On one hand, the BJP's traditional voters are the upper castes, and on the other hand, there is the challenge of maintaining the support of Dalits and OBCs. Maintaining a political balance has become a major challenge for the BJP. BJP's Upper Caste Leaders in a Quandary.

What is the electoral loss to the BJP?

The BJP's social base has always been the upper caste voters. Even when the BJP was not in power, it received a significant number of votes from upper castes. Upper caste organizations are protesting against the new UGC rules. Within the BJP itself, people believe that this could harm the party. A BJP leader said that it is becoming difficult for them to explain the situation to their supporters, and if they don't protest, their supporters will question them.

A current BJP MLA also echoed this sentiment. Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said that the way the party is completely ignoring its traditional upper caste votes has already created unease in the community, and the UGC controversy has only exacerbated it. From former BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh to his son Prateek Bhushan and MLA Abhijit Singh Sanga, and even Dr. Sanjay Singh, have opposed the new UGC rules. The BJP leader said that even though the Supreme Court has granted a stay, the protests are still ongoing.

Could this spoil the BJP's game in UP?

Politics in Uttar Pradesh is entirely centered around caste, and the UGC controversy has drawn new lines. Upper caste communities, including Brahmins, Thakurs, and Vaishyas, constitute a significant vote bank, making up about 22 percent of the state's population. This is traditionally considered a BJP stronghold, but this controversy has angered them, as they see the rules as reverse discrimination. Young people from the general category say that these new rules are against the general category and will lead to reverse discrimination.

Political analyst Siddharth Kalhans says that Brahmins were already unhappy, and now the UGC controversy has angered all upper caste communities, including Thakurs and Kayasthas, which could be a cause for concern for the BJP. Since 2014, upper castes have strengthened the BJP in Lok Sabha and state assembly elections, but now discontent is growing. The resentment of upper castes against the BJP over the new UGC rules has come to the forefront, and the party may suffer the consequences, as this issue has reached every household.

In Uttar Pradesh, upper caste voters are at a crucial juncture ahead of the 2027 assembly elections. Upper castes constitute 22 percent of the population in the state, with Brahmins making up 10 percent, Thakurs/Rajputs 6 percent, Vaishyas 4 percent, and other upper castes 2 percent. The BJP received 80 percent of the upper caste vote. Assembly elections are due in UP next year. Brahmins in UP were already reportedly unhappy with the BJP. A group of Brahmin leaders had formed within the BJP and held meetings, and now the entire upper caste community has taken to the streets.

How will the BJP overcome this crisis in 2027?

Welcoming the Supreme Court's stay order, organizations ranging from the Karni Sena to the Parshuram Sena and various Brahmin community organizations are saying that this is only a partial victory. They also state that the fight will continue until the entire rules are withdrawn. Raghavendra Singh Raju, General Secretary of the All India Kshatriya Mahasabha, says that 46 upper caste organizations in UP are jointly protesting against the new UGC rules. Even after the Supreme Court's stay order, we will continue our protest until March 19, because the upper castes are with the BJP, but the BJP is not with the upper castes.

How long will the BJP continue to test the patience of the upper castes?

The BJP is only focused on appeasing Dalits and OBCs, but the denial of the rights of upper castes is now becoming intolerable for society. That is why not only Thakurs and Brahmins, but also Kayasthas and the Pathan Mahasabha of Muslims have joined us in protest. By making new UGC rules, the BJP has done itself a great disservice. In 2024, the Rajput community spoiled the BJP's game in UP, and in 2027, the upper castes will make them pay the price for ignoring their concerns.

From a political perspective, if the upper castes distance themselves from the BJP, it could suffer a loss of 10 to 15 percent of votes in the Purvanchal and Awadh regions. In 2022, Brahmin votes secured more than 50 seats, and Thakur votes contributed to 45 seats, but this discontent could have the opposite effect in 2027. The opposition has made this an issue of reverse discrimination. That is why the opposition has given very measured reactions to attract the upper castes to their side.

Are SP and BSP playing a calculated game?

While BJP leaders are taking credit for the Supreme Court's stay on the UGC issue, people on social media are continuously protesting and questioning this, saying that the credit for the stay does not go to the BJP or its leaders at all. The UGC rules seem to be becoming a thorn in the side of the government and the BJP. Opposition leaders are calling these rules unconstitutional or saying that further discussion is needed. The opposition is ready to attack the government. From the SP to the BSP and the TMC, all have welcomed the court's decision.

SP chief Akhilesh Yadav said on the stay on the UGC rules that true justice does not involve injustice to anyone, and the Honorable Court ensures this. The language of the law should be clear, and so should its intent. It's not just about the rules, but also about the intention. There should be no oppression of anyone, nor any injustice. "There should be no oppression or injustice against anyone."

BSP chief Mayawati said that the Supreme Court's order is appropriate given the current situation, as these new rules had created an atmosphere of social tension. Protests against these rules had taken place in different parts of the country. The UGC has implemented new rules to prevent caste-based incidents in government and private universities across the country, which has created an atmosphere of social tension. Considering the current situation, the Supreme Court's decision to stay the UGC's new rules is appropriate. She said that such an atmosphere of social tension would not have arisen in the country if the UGC had taken all stakeholders into confidence before implementing the new rules. This is being seen as a move to appease upper-caste voters.