Big Week for Markets: US Trade Talks and Global Data to Shape Investor Mood

The upcoming week is expected to be important for global stock markets, as several key economic updates are scheduled across the US, India, and China. According to experts, how investors feel will largely depend on how these events turn out—especially the ongoing trade talks between India and the US, which many are watching closely for positive developments.

Bajaj Broking's research team said in their weekly note, “The week from July 28 to August 1, 2025, is filled with major economic events across the US, India, and China. These can have a big effect on how global markets move.”

Financial experts also believe that any good news from the first-quarter results season could improve the market's mood. Sudeep Shah, who leads technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities, stated, “Any positive step in global trade talks, especially those involving the US, can give the market a boost. Even small signs of progress can ease fears among investors. Also, if the remaining Q1 results surprise positively, it can help the market hold steady at lower levels.”

Key Data from India, US, and China

In India, the economic calendar starts with the release of Year-on-Year Industrial Production data on July 28, which shows how the country's factories are performing. This will be followed by the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI report on August 1, which reflects the condition of the manufacturing sector.

China, on the other hand, will release its Manufacturing PMI on July 31. This report helps measure business activity and confidence in the region’s factories.

In the US, markets will be closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on July 30. With inflation still a concern, this move could influence future policy decisions. Alongside this, the US will also publish data on GDP growth and private sector jobs on the same day. On July 31, a report on new unemployment claims will offer more insight into the health of the American job market.

Market Trend Still Weak Amid Uncertainty

The benchmark Nifty index has continued to fall, marking its fourth week in a row of losses. Analysts say this is due to multiple reasons—lack of positive triggers, disappointing Q1 results from top companies, and doubts about progress in global trade agreements.

Although Nifty tried to bounce back from a key support level during the week, the recovery was not strong enough. On Wednesday, it briefly closed above its 20-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average), which raised hopes of a comeback. But those hopes were short-lived, as renewed selling pressure pulled the index back down.

So far, the earnings season has mostly failed to meet market expectations. Several big companies reported weaker-than-expected results, which has disappointed investors. These results were hoped to be a strong push for the market, but instead, they added to the gloom.

Apart from weak earnings, the lack of fresh positive news within the country and continued global trade uncertainties have added to the cautious attitude among traders. Analysts say that while poor results alone aren't the only cause of the market drop, they have certainly added to the current downward trend, especially with no major buying interest or good news on the horizon.