The US and Israel jointly attacked Iran on Saturday. (Image X @FrontalForce)
New Delhi: The US and Israel jointly attacked Iran on Saturday. These devastating attacks reportedly destroyed the residence of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The aim of these attacks is to cripple Iran's nuclear program and eliminate key military leaders associated with it. Iran has also stated, "You started the attack, we will end it."
Meanwhile, the Indian government has issued an advisory for Indian citizens. This comes after Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently returned from a visit to Israel. According to an Al Jazeera report, India and Iran have a long-standing cooperative relationship. Following Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Iran in 2016, the two countries signed a landmark agreement allowing India to develop the strategically important Chabahar port on Iran's southeastern coast.
These attacks on Iran are likely to have a significant impact on India, as India has strategic interests in the region and enjoys excellent but delicate relations with both Israel and Iran.
According to reports, the primary reason is that Iran serves as India's gateway to Central Asia. India has invested billions of dollars in Iran's Chabahar port to establish direct connectivity with Central Asia. Chabahar is a competitor to Pakistan's Gwadar port. If the attack intensifies and continues for a long time, the Chabahar project could be jeopardized.
Central Asia is important to India not only for energy security but also for its abundance of rare earth minerals. However, India does not share a direct border with this region, limiting trade opportunities. Uranium supplies from Kazakhstan could also be impacted. The Iran-Israel conflict would jeopardize India's connectivity plans and hinder the long-awaited progress of the International North-South Corridor.
Increasing regional tensions in the Middle East could disrupt trade relations between India and Afghanistan, which pass through Chabahar. China could rapidly replace India in Afghanistan. It has long been trying to establish a Pakistan-Afghanistan-China dialogue.
Iran-Israel attacks would jeopardize India's energy security and economy. More than 50 percent of its oil imports pass through the Iranian-occupied Strait of Hormuz. Iran could close this strait. Around 80-90 percent of India's crude oil supply comes from the West Asia region, including Iran and other Gulf countries. This conflict has already caused a surge in global oil prices, which could increase further if attacks escalate.
This conflict could also threaten the safety of Indian citizens living in Iran-Israel. Approximately 20,000 Indians have gone to Israel, while approximately 10,000 have gone to Iran to study, travel, or work. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has already issued travel advisories and is closely monitoring the situation to ensure the safety of its citizens.
In an Al Jazeera report, Azad Essa, senior journalist at Middle East Eye and author of the book "Hostile Homelands: The New Alliance Between India and Israel," published in 2023, said that PM Modi's visit to Israel is extremely important. PM Modi's visit demonstrates the evolution of relations between India and Israel over the past decade. One of the objectives of the visit was to send a strong message to the Middle East about India's importance to the region.
The report states that India's delicate balance with Iran and Israel is crucial as it seeks to maintain its influence in the region and protect its strategic interests. Maintaining balanced relations with both countries during the buildup of armed forces in the Middle East will be extremely challenging for India.
An Israeli-US attack on Iran would enhance Pakistan's strategic importance. A weakened Iran would not be favorable to India, but it could provide Pakistan with greater leverage in the region. Despite being an Islamic nation, Iran does not have strong relations with Pakistan. At the same time, Iran is of greater importance to India as it seeks to compete with China-Pakistan's plans in the region. Bilateral relations between Iran and Pakistan have deteriorated in recent years, and in January 2024, the two countries even carried out cross-border attacks over allegations of harboring terrorist groups across the border.
According to analysts, if the war between Iran and Israel continues for a long time, Pakistan and its long border with Iran could become a significant geopolitical asset for the US. This could lead to increased US military and financial aid to Pakistan, which India would undoubtedly oppose because America wants to build military bases in this region.
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