India’s Dual Blow to Pakistan: Indus Treaty Suspended, Hydropower Projects Fast-Tracked

After the Pahalgam Attack, India suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in response to the Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 civilians, marking a historic escalation in India-Pakistan tensions. The treaty, which allocates 80% of the Indus basin’s western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—to Pakistan, has been a cornerstone of water-sharing for over six decades. India’s move, citing Pakistan’s alleged support for cross-border terrorism, halts data sharing and treaty obligations, freeing New Delhi to manage these rivers without prior consultation. Pakistan, heavily reliant on these waters for 80% of its agriculture, has called the suspension an “act of war,” raising fears of economic and ecological fallout.

Hydropower Projects Gain Momentum
Compounding Pakistan’s concerns, India has initiated work to boost reservoir capacity at hydropower projects like the 690-MW Salal and 900-MW Baglihar dams in Jammu and Kashmir, announced on May 5, 2025. These run-of-the-river projects, previously constrained by treaty restrictions, are now undergoing sediment flushing and capacity enhancements to maximize power output. India’s Jal Shakti Minister, CR Patil, vowed to ensure “no drop of Indus water reaches Pakistan,” signaling a strategic push to harness untapped hydropower potential. This move, the first tangible step outside the IWT’s framework, aims to bolster energy security in Kashmir but risks altering downstream flows critical to Pakistan’s farms.

Pakistan’s Vulnerable Agriculture

The Indus system irrigates 16 million hectares of Pakistani farmland, supporting crops like wheat, rice, and cotton, which contribute 25% to its GDP. The treaty’s suspension and India’s hydropower expansion threaten water predictability, especially during the dry season when flows are low. Experts warn that even minor disruptions could slash yields, spike food prices, and cripple small-scale farmers. Pakistan’s hydropower plants, like Tarbela and Mangla, also face risks, potentially exacerbating its energy crisis and economic woes.

India’s Hydropower Push Stuns Pakistan

India’s actions, while technically limited by existing infrastructure, signal a long-term strategy to control water flows. Pakistan is preparing legal challenges at the World Bank and International Court of Justice, but the treaty’s lack of a unilateral exit clause complicates its case. With Russia and the UN urging de-escalation, the region braces for diplomatic fallout as India leverages its upstream advantage, reshaping South Asia’s hydro-politics.