Israel-Iran under the pretext of conflict: Is the era of Khamenei on the verge of ending?

International News: The Middle East is once again burning in the fire of war. On the night of June 12, 2025, the aggression by which Israel targeted Iran's nuclear bases and named it 'Operation Rising Lion' was not a normal military action. It seems to be a part of a completely strategic plan, which aims to clearly weaken the military but also shake the power structure of Iran from within. The attack confirmed the assassination of 9 nuclear scientists and targeted the major government military communication system.

Israel's strategy: prevent Iran from becoming nuclear power

Israel has been saying for a long time that it will not allow Iran to become the world's tenth nuclear power country in any situation. From this point of view, this attack was not a surprising step. But the question is now arising whether Israel's purpose is only to eliminate Iran's nuclear capacity, or is there a plan to change power?

This possibility was strengthened when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement on the next day of the war that "the people of Iran should unite their historical symbols and stand for freedom from oppressive rule." The clear indication in this statement was that Israel now wants to make the role of change of governance by bringing instability within Iran, not only a limited war.

Iran's power structure: not democracy, revolutionary control

Iran's political structure is different from other democratic countries. There, the President and Parliament are elected in the name of democracy, but the supreme power is with the 'Supreme Leader,' which is a religious position and only Ayatollah can sit in this post. Currently, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is seated in this post, who has been in power since 1989.

The real strength of Iran's power is with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is a military organization to carry forward loyal and radical religious ideology to Ayatollah. The IRGC directly controls Parliament, the Judiciary, the Media, and the Economy.

Chances of rebellion and lack of opposition

Israel is hoping that the angry people will stand against power, but there are many obstacles. First, Iran lacks organized and reliable opposition. Raza Pahlavi, son of former Shah Mohammad Raza Pahlavi, is in exile, and although he has emerged as a symbolic face, his political base in Iran is negligible.

Second, a large part of the public still trusts the Khamenei government, even if it disagrees with its policies. After the death of Mahsa Amini in the year 2022, the anti-hijab movement shook the government, but the rigorous attitude of the IRGC and clerics crushed that movement. This also made it clear that the rebellion cannot last for a long time without a strong opposition.

Islamic Revolution: Religious centralization of power

The current system of Iran came into existence after the Islamic Revolution of 1979, in which Shah Reza Pahlavi was removed from power and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was made the supreme leader. Since then, power has been concentrated in the alliance of religious and military leaders. Prior to this revolution, Iran was a modern, western-lifestyle-adopting country where there were no restrictions on women's dress or social freedom.

But the Islamic revolution not only changed the direction of power but also converted Iran into a radical ritual. Today the constitution there is based on Sharia and the decision of the Supreme Leader is considered supreme.

Will Israel's plan be successful?

This is a difficult question. The rule of Iran may be based on religious fanaticism, but it has been able to maintain its existence for a long time. There is dissatisfaction against the government in the minds of the people there, but there is no organization or face to convert that dissatisfaction into leadership. In such a situation, Israel's thinking that only attacks and rhetoric will change power in Iran, perhaps it will be a hurry.

Yes, it can be said that if the military pressure lasts for a long time and the information war continues by the Western countries as well as international sanctions, the fire of dissatisfaction in Iran may ignite. But it is too early to say when and how he would explode.

Will America intervene?

Everyone's eyes are on the role of America in this entire struggle. The US is repeatedly appealing to both sides to exercise restraint, but if the situation worsened and Israel needed a direct reply, it would not back down from intervening. At the same time, countries like Russia and China stand in support of Iran, which further increases the chances of taking this war global.

A war, several layers

This war between Iran and Israel is not a military conflict between just two countries. This struggle has become a representative of religious domination, regional dominance, and global power balance. In this war, the strength, as the missiles are showing, is that more war is going on at the level of power and ideology. Will the days decide whether Israel succeeds in its purpose or Iran saves its power?