Exit Polls predict BJP wins in West Bengal and Assam. (Image X @ECISVEEP)
Kolkata: With the completion of the voting process for the assembly elections across five states, exit poll results have begun to emerge. Following the conclusion of the second phase of voting in West Bengal, all eyes are now fixed on the exit polls. While the voting process had already concluded in four states (Assam, Puducherry, and Tamil Nadu), the exit poll results for all five states are being released simultaneously today.
Following the conclusion of the second phase of voting in the West Bengal Assembly elections, exit poll results have started to trickle in. In its exit poll, Republic-Matrize projects the BJP as poised to taste power in West Bengal—a state comprising 294 assembly seats—for the very first time. According to the exit poll conducted by P-MARQ in collaboration with Republic, the BJP is expected to secure between 150 and 175 seats in Bengal, while the TMC appears set to win between 118 and 138 seats. Other parties are projected to secure between 2 and 6 seats.
In addition to P-MARQ, Republic TV has also released exit poll data in collaboration with Matrize. In this exit poll as well, the BJP appears poised to capture power for the first time. According to the Matrize exit poll, the BJP is expected to win between 146 and 161 seats, Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress is projected to secure between 125 and 140 seats, while other parties are expected to win between 6 and 10 seats.
However, in terms of vote share—according to the exit polls—the margin separating the BJP and the TMC is just over 2 percent. Having successfully increased its vote percentage in the 2021 assembly elections, the BJP has once again demonstrated a strong hold over the electorate in this election. According to the statistics, the BJP has secured a vote share of 42.5 percent in the state, while Mamata has received 40.8 percent of the votes. Additionally, other parties and candidates have garnered approximately 16.7 percent of the vote.
Following West Bengal, the Republic Network and its partners have also released exit polls for the 126-seat Assam Legislative Assembly. Republic Matrize has once again projected a victory for the BJP and its allies, assigning them between 85 and 95 seats. Conversely, the Congress and its allies appear set to occupy the opposition benches once again, with a projected tally of 25 to 35 seats. In this state, which features several other political players, 'Others' appear poised to win between 6 and 12 seats.
Meanwhile, according to data from P-MARQ, the BJP is expected to secure between 82 and 94 seats. The Congress and its allies are likely to emerge victorious in 30 to 40 seats, while 'Others' could account for anywhere between 1 and 5 seats.
In Tamil Nadu—the largest state in South Indian politics—the ruling DMK appears poised for a victory once again. According to the Matrize report, the DMK and its allies could win between 122 and 132 seats in this 234-seat Legislative Assembly. The AIADMK, in alliance with the BJP, appears set to occupy the opposition leader's seat once again, with a projected win of 87 to 100 seats. Vijay, making his electoral debut, appears likely to win between 10 and 12 seats this time around.
It is worth noting that elections were concluded over the past month in five major states across the country. Among these, voting took place on April 9 in Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry. In Tamil Nadu, voting was conducted in a single phase on April 23, while in West Bengal, voting took place on April 23 and April 29. Exit polls are surveys conducted immediately after the voting process has concluded. These figures do not constitute official data. However, based on them, one can project the electoral fortunes—wins and losses—of the various political parties. The verdict on which party will form the government in these five states—and which will occupy the opposition benches for the next five years—will be revealed on May 4.
The ruling LDF alliance in Kerala could face a potential setback. Exit polls released by 'P-MARQ' for the 140-seat Legislative Assembly project the Congress-led UDF alliance in the lead, poised to secure between 71 and 79 seats. On the other hand, the Left Front (LDF) is projected to win between 62 and 69 seats in this exit poll. Furthermore, the BJP—which has been striving to gain a foothold in Kerala—is expected to win a mere 1 to 4 seats. Other parties and independents may account for anywhere between 0 and 3 seats.
Over the past month, elections have concluded in five states across the country. Among these, the electoral battles in West Bengal, Assam, and Tamil Nadu have been particularly fierce. In West Bengal, the Mamata-led government is making every effort to extend its winning streak, while the BJP has thrown its entire weight behind the campaign in a bid to taste power in the state for the very first time. Given the violence that marred the previous assembly elections in the state, a massive deployment of security forces was undertaken this time around. These elections—the first to be held following the COVID-19 pandemic—witnessed a robust voter turnout. West Bengal, in particular, recorded an exceptionally high voter turnout during the first and second phases of polling.
In Tamil Nadu, a neck-and-neck contest is unfolding between the regional heavyweights—the DMK and the AIADMK. The Congress and the BJP are participating in the state as junior partners within their respective alliances. Additionally, the electoral battle in Assam remains intense. While Chief Minister Himanta expresses confidence in securing a victory in the state, the Congress party is asserting that it will reclaim the political ground it had previously lost.
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