Pakistan’s Water Security at Risk: Key Findings from the Ecological Threat Report 2025

Pakistan: Pakistan is facing the threat of a serious water crisis after India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty. According to the report, the country has only 30 days of water storage, which could have a huge impact on agriculture and food security.

What was this agreement between India and Pakistan, and what has changed now?

This agreement was signed in 1960 with the mediation of the World Bank, which mainly provided for sharing of water of the Indus River and its major tributaries. Following a terrorist incident in April this year, India has 'temporarily' kept it in status quo or rather has created a situation of 'potentially non-applicable.' 

Why is Pakistan's water security at risk?

Reports suggest that about 80% of Pakistan's irrigated agricultural water depends on Indus Basin rivers and tributaries. According to the report, Pakistan has very limited capacity to store the flow of these rivers for a sufficient period of time—about “30 days.” 

While upstream (towards India) would alter the flow of rivers—even if not completely stop them—serious water shortages or declines in agricultural production are possible in the Pakistani plains.

Can India completely stop the flow of the river, and if not, how can it be controlled?

The report suggests that India is not yet in a position to completely shut down river flows because most of the dams on its western rivers are of the “run-of-the-river” type, which do not have large water storage. 

But India gate operations can affect downstream dams through measures such as ‘reservoir flushing’—for example, the unannounced flushing of Indian dams on the Chenab River in May, which temporarily reduced river flows in Pakistan's Punjab region. 

What could be the further implications?

It's not only about water management but is also related to security, agriculture, and geopolitical dimensions. If the agreement stalls completely or India takes greater control in the future, pressure on food security and irrigation systems in Pakistan could increase.

The report also said that as trust decreases, it is possible for disputes between the two countries to increase, and intervention by third countries or multilateral agencies may also arise.