Al-Qaeda’s ‘Anaconda Strategy’ in Mali: Is this Afghanistan 2.0 as JNIM grabs 70% territory?

Mali: Mali, a country in West Africa, is currently going through a very difficult phase. JNIM (Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin), an organization associated with Al-Qaeda, has rapidly increased its hold in the country. According to experts, it is not limited to just violent attacks, but the group is working on a bigger strategy, which is being called the “Anaconda Strategy”—an attempt to gradually corner the state.

Has the fuel blockade become Mali’s biggest weakness?

JNIM has targeted fuel trucks in recent months and disrupted fuel supplies. The situation in the capital, Bamako, is such that schools had to be closed in many places, power cuts have increased, and people are standing in long queues for essential goods. The government is calling it an “economic war,” and experts say the situation could paralyze even the capital if it goes on for long.

What power vacuum was created by the departure of France and the Western armies?

When French and allied forces left Mali in 2022, the security structure was shaken. The army is in power, but ground control is continuously decreasing. JNIM took advantage of this vacuum and started its own parallel system in many areas—in some places tax collection, in some places its own “laws,” and in some places social rules were implemented.

Is JNIM projecting itself as an ‘alternative government’?

Reports say that the aim of the organization is not just to spread fear. He is busy making himself an alternative to the government. JNIM is making itself visible in local communities, from monitoring roads to settling disputes. This gradually exposes the weaknesses of the government.

If Mali collapses, will the entire Sahel region be in danger?

The gardener cannot fall alone. Its weakness may also affect Burkina Faso, Niger, and other parts of West Africa. Many experts call this the “domino effect.” If the state system in Mali breaks down, the entire Sahel region could be embroiled in a protracted conflict.

Is Mali heading towards becoming the ‘African Afghanistan’?

This is the worry. Analysts are saying that the situation in Mali is moving in a direction where the government remains only on paper and ground control goes into the hands of extremist groups. The military government is under constant pressure, and the crisis is rapidly deepening. Mali is currently at a juncture where the coming few months could decide the direction of the entire region. The eyes of the world are on how long the government can survive, and how much more JNIM increases its pace.