Bihar elections 2025: Nitish faces his biggest political test as BJP and Tejashwi watch closely

National News: The 2025 Bihar Assembly elections will be completed in the shortest time in state history. Unlike previous elections of three, five, or six phases, this one will be held in just two. Voting will take place on November 6 and 11, and results will be announced on November 14. This limited schedule makes the fight more intense. Analysts believe the short campaign will test leaders’ organizational skills more than ever before. For Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, the pressure is immense.

Nitish Kumar’s political exam

Nitish Kumar has been in power since 2005, but his journey has not been steady. He has switched alliances multiple times, moving between BJP and RJD-led fronts. Despite shrinking seat numbers in 2015 and 2020, Nitish has managed to retain the chief minister’s chair. Now in 2025, he faces what many call his final big test. Will he still command voter trust after so many flips? This election will decide whether Nitish remains a central force or becomes a junior partner.

2010 election set the peak

In 2010, Nitish Kumar and the JD(U)-BJP alliance achieved their strongest ever mandate. JD(U) won 115 seats with 22.58% vote share, and BJP added 91 seats with 16.49%. Together they dominated the assembly, while RJD and LJP together managed only 25 seats. Congress performed poorly with just 4 seats. This election established Nitish as the strong “big brother” in the alliance. But the following years showed that political fortunes in Bihar can shift very quickly.

2015 saw Mahagathbandhan’s rise

By 2015, Nitish broke away from BJP and joined hands with RJD and Congress. The Mahagathbandhan scored a massive victory, winning 178 seats and 41.84% of the vote. RJD secured 80 seats, JD(U) 71, and Congress 27. The BJP, despite higher vote share, was left with 53 seats. That election proved the power of unity between Nitish and Lalu Prasad Yadav. However, it also marked the beginning of JD(U)’s declining independent strength, as RJD overtook them as the larger partner.

2020 brought BJP ahead

In 2020, JD(U) rejoined BJP and contested as NDA allies. Together they won 125 seats, just past the majority mark. BJP became the bigger party with 74 seats, while JD(U) dropped to 43. The Mahagathbandhan was close behind with 110 seats, as RJD emerged the single largest party. Nitish remained chief minister, but his reduced numbers weakened his bargaining power. This phase marked BJP’s rise as the dominant force within NDA in Bihar, changing the balance of leadership.

Alliance flips confuse voters

Since 2020, Nitish has switched sides yet again, leaving NDA, joining Mahagathbandhan, then returning to BJP in 2024. Political analysts say this damaged his image as a stable leader. Still, his alliance with BJP helped in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where NDA secured 30 seats. With JD(U) at 45 MLAs and BJP at 78, the current government holds a slim majority. The opposition, led by RJD, Congress, and Left parties, stands just eight seats short of power.

Tejashwi and BJP also tested

For Tejashwi Yadav, this election is equally critical. He wants to prove RJD can rule without Lalu’s shadow. BJP, meanwhile, faces the challenge of leading the campaign while still supporting Nitish as CM face. The election thus becomes a three-way test — Nitish’s survival, Tejashwi’s ambition, and BJP’s dominance. With a shorter campaign, leaders will rely on ground-level workers and social media to connect with voters. November’s results will reshape Bihar’s political future for years to come.