Early Monsoon in India: A Blessing for Farmers or a Risky Gamble?

National News: This time the monsoon has announced its arrival in India ahead of time. The first showers of monsoon fell in Kerala on 24 May, while its average date is considered to be 1 June. This premature arrival of 8 days is not just a normal seasonal change but is the result of many global and local factors. Earlier, the monsoon had arrived so early in 2009.

What is a monsoon?

The word 'monsoon' has its roots in the Arabic language "Mausim," which means "season. In scientific language, a monsoon is a system of seasonal winds, which changes its direction twice a year. In summer, these winds blow from the sea towards the land and bring heavy moisture, which causes rain.

Where does this journey of rain start?

Every year, southwestern winds rise from the Indian Ocean and enter India via the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

• Arabian Sea branch - moves towards north-west India through Kerala, Karnataka, and Maharashtra.
• Bay of Bengal branch - enters Northeast India and goes to Bihar, UP, and the plains of the Ganges.
• The confluence of these two branches causes rainfall in almost every corner of the country.

Why did the monsoon arrive early this time?

There were several major reasons for the early arrival of the monsoon this time:

1. Sea temperature and heat-low

Due to the inclination of the Earth towards the Northern Hemisphere in summer, the temperature in the Arabian Sea increased, and a powerful low-pressure area was formed there. Also, the heat low formed in Pakistan and Rajasthan pulled the sea winds, and the monsoon knocked before time.

2. Activation of monsoon trough

The monsoon trough, which extends from the Bay of Bengal to North India, determines the movement of the monsoon. This year this trough became active unusually early.

3. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

It is a marine-atmospheric phenomenon that affects cloud and rainfall activities. This time its effective phase was active in the Indian Ocean, which accelerated the monsoon.

4. Mascarene High and Somali Jet

The high-pressure area (Mascarene High) formed in the southern Indian Ocean, and the Somali Jet winds originating from near Africa—both further intensified the monsoon moisture.

5. Local convection activities

Thunderstorm activity formed in North India in the last few weeks also supported the monsoon system. Vertical uplift of moisture and heat led to early rainfall in many areas.

How do scientists decide whether the monsoon has arrived or not?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) declares the monsoon on three main conditions:

• Rainfall of more than 2.5 mm for two consecutive days at 9 out of 14 stations in Kerala.
• Winds are blowing at a speed of 15-20 knots.
• OLR level in satellite data is less than 200 W/m²

Early monsoon: Both benefits and risks

An early monsoon does not mean that there will be good rain everywhere. If this system weakens or remains scattered, then there can be an agricultural crisis, drought, and water shortage. But if it remains strong, it will be a big relief for the farmers.

The result of complex layers of climatology

The monsoon of 2025 is not just a weather change that came before a date but is the result of complex layers of climatology. Global events like the MJO, local temperature, wind direction, and ocean behavior, all together, have called the monsoon to India before its usual pace this time. Now all eyes are on how sustainable and balanced this monsoon will prove to be.