Bihar Defeat Leaves Congress Confused: BJP or TMC the Real Rival in Bengal 2026?

New Delhi: The upcoming West Bengal polls are poised for a fierce showdown between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP. Once politically marginal, the BJP has rapidly evolved into a major contender and now aims to seize power. Congress, meanwhile, struggles to define its stance amid crumbling influence in the state. While TMC has openly distanced itself from the INDIA bloc, Congress risks signaling national weakness if it doesn't confront BJP aggressively. The dilemma intensifies post-Bihar defeat.

How Has BJP Grown in Bengal Politics?

Until 2011, the BJP drew a blank in the West Bengal Assembly. It later gained ground, winning three seats in 2016 and a significant 77 in 2021. Prime Minister Narendra Modi intensified focus on the state post-Bihar victory, declaring Bengal as the next battleground. BJP now seeks to end what it labels as “jungle raj” under TMC and looks to form the government independently in 2026.

How Dominant Is TMC Today?

The Trinamool Congress has consistently strengthened its hold. From winning just 30 seats in 2006, it surged to 184 in 2011, 211 in 2016, and 213 in 2021. The TMC wiped the CPI(M) off the political landscape, pushing it from 176 seats in 2006 to zero in 2021. CM Mamata Banerjee is leading the fight against BJP’s narrative while opposing SIR reforms and mobilising support.

Why Is Congress Struggling to Stay Relevant?

Congress once played a crucial role, winning 42 seats in alliance with the Left in 2011. However, it failed to retain ground by 2016 and collapsed completely in 2021—winning zero seats out of 92 it contested and securing only 3% vote share. The party has turned into a third or fourth-position contender in most constituencies, raising doubts over its viability.

What Strategic Decisions Must Congress Make Now?

Congress is debating whether it should prioritise winning seats, regaining voter share, or merely marking electoral presence. With the political contest polarized between TMC and BJP, Congress risks irrelevance unless it positions itself strategically. Choosing the wrong adversary could further damage its national standing. The party must decide whether to oppose BJP to align with national opposition sentiment or challenge TMC to preserve regional space.

BJP’s Post-Bihar Positioning and Impact on Bengal

After sweeping Bihar, PM Modi indicated political continuity from Bihar to Bengal, symbolically linking the Ganga’s flow between states. He signaled readiness to dismantle TMC rule. BJP is also using the ongoing SIR issue to discuss illegal immigration and consolidate Hindu voters. This aggressive campaign puts pressure on both TMC and Congress.

What Lies Ahead for Congress in 2026?

Congress faces a decisive moment. With shrinking electoral influence and allies distancing themselves, it must identify its core objective for the 2026 elections. Whether fighting for power, impact, or mere survival, its choice between BJP or TMC as the principal rival will shape its political future—not just in Bengal, but across India.