Is the World's Last Oil Route About to Close? Houthi Maneuvers Escalate Global Tensions

Tel Aviv: Just one month after the war initiated by the United States against Iran began, the conflict is spreading across the entire region and has now assumed a dangerous new form. Yemen's Houthi rebels have launched a missile attack on Israel for the third time. Concurrently, in coordination with Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah, they launched an assault on an oil tanker belonging to Qatar Energy. Through this action, the Houthi group has sent a clear message: this war will no longer remain confined, and its repercussions are set to become far-reaching in the times to come.

Who are the Houthis?

It is worth noting that the Houthis—formally known as Ansar Allah (Supporters of God)—are affiliated with the Zaidi branch of Shia Islam. Since the Arab Spring, they have maintained control over Yemen's capital, Sana'a, and the majority of the coastal areas along the Red Sea. They have previously survived two major US bombing campaigns: the first in 2024 during the Joe Biden administration, and the second between March and May 2025 during Donald Trump's tenure. Trump ultimately reached an agreement with them, remarking in his signature blunt style, "You could say they have a lot of courage."

Why are the Houthis onsidered Masters of Warfare?

These fighters are widely regarded as masters of the art of warfare. They possess drones and anti-ship missiles, and they have a proven track record of disrupting global shipping lanes. From late 2023 to early 2025, the Houthis launched attacks on more than 100 commercial vessels in the Red Sea in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza. They constitute a part of Iran's "Axis of Resistance"—a network through which Tehran provides weapons, funding, and operational coordination.

Whenever Iran enters a conflict, this entire network is activated. Precisely such an event unfolded last Saturday; the Houthis have characterized their missile strike as a joint military operation conducted in conjunction with Iran and Hezbollah. They have warned that if attacks on Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, the West Bank, and Gaza continue, even greater violence will ensue.

How do the Houthis maintain a stronghold near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait?

Geographically, the Houthis maintain a strong foothold along Yemen's western coast and in the mountainous regions surrounding the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This strait, ranging from 26 to 32 kilometers in width, connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. Approximately 10 to 12 percent of global maritime trade—including oil, gas, food products, machinery, and container cargo—passes through this route between Asia and Europe. Anticipating a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, Saudi Arabia had already begun transporting its crude oil via overland pipelines to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. In March, traffic along the Bab al-Mandeb route witnessed a 21 percent increase. Now, the Houthis are placing this route in jeopardy as well.

Analysts at Rystad Energy have warned that Brent crude—which has already surged 50 percent to reach $110 per barrel since the outbreak of the conflict—could climb above $150 per barrel if the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is closed. Meanwhile, a Houthi deputy minister told CNN that closing the strait is "a viable option." An Iranian official conveyed a similar sentiment to Al Jazeera. Former U.S. diplomat Nabeel Khoury noted that the Houthis would need only to fire upon a few vessels to bring all commercial traffic in the Red Sea to a complete standstill.

If such a scenario unfolds, Asia stands to be the region most severely impacted by this crisis, as it sources 60 percent of its oil from the Middle East. The Philippines has already declared an energy emergency. South Korea has appealed to its citizens to conserve water. The Indian government has implemented a substantial reduction in federal excise duties on petroleum products. Despite this, the economic crisis is spreading rapidly.

Meanwhile, the United States is planning a ground assault on Kharg Island, the hub for 90 percent of Iran's oil exports. Thus far, it has fired over 850 Tomahawk missiles, has lost a critical radar aircraft stationed in Saudi Arabia, and its military resources are under immense strain. Several of its allies are openly distancing themselves from this conflict. France has condemned the action, declaring it illegal. Australia has refused to offer support. Spain has closed its ports and military bases to facilitate U.S. attacks. Germany has stated that it was never consulted regarding the matter.

Against this backdrop, the pressure on the US President continues to mount. Perhaps this is the reason why Trump is keen to bring this war to an end as swiftly as possible. On Tuesday, Trump stated, "We will be pulling out very soon... in two weeks, perhaps three weeks." When asked whether a diplomatic settlement was necessary to conclude 'Operation Epic Fury,' he categorically stated, "No; Iran does not need to reach any agreement with me."