Delimitation Bill: Central Government Approaches Two-Thirds Majority Ahead Of Monsoon Session As DMK Stance Shifts

New Delhi: A major political realignment is taking shape ahead of the monsoon session of Parliament. The central government is expected to bring the Delimitation Bill again and this time the numbers may finally work in its favour. The biggest development is that MK Stalin's DMK, which had opposed the bill earlier, is now being seen as a potential supporter. The shift comes right after DMK's decades-old alliance with Congress collapsed following the Tamil Nadu assembly election results.

What happened between DMK and Congress?

The split was triggered by the Tamil Nadu election outcome. Vijay's TVK party won the most seats. Congress backed Vijay and helped TVK form the government. DMK was furious. It accused Congress of betrayal and the alliance that had lasted for decades fell apart. With that, DMK's political calculations have changed and its stance on the Delimitation Bill appears to be shifting as well.

What are DMK's conditions?

DMK MP Tiruchi Siva told CNN-News18 that the government has not yet come with a clear proposal on delimitation. He said southern states must not be adversely affected. He also demanded that the Women's Reservation Bill be implemented immediately with the current numbers. He said DMK wants much more clarity from the government before taking any position. According to sources, DMK wants a provision in the bill guaranteeing a 50 percent increase in seats for every state. Home Minister Amit Shah had mentioned this possibility when the bill was introduced earlier. Sources say if this provision is included in the bill, DMK is prepared to consider it positively.

Revolutionary Socialist Party MP Premachandran, speaking after an all-party meeting on Sunday, said DMK has agreed to support the bill. DMK however is not being that straightforward about it yet.

How close is the Government to two-thirds?

The Delimitation Bill requires a constitutional amendment which means a two-thirds majority is needed to pass it. Last time 298 MPs voted in favour. Since then the numbers have moved. After the Bengal election results, 20 TMC MPs broke from Mamata Banerjee's faction and merged with NCPI, pushing the count to 318. Six Shiv Sena UBT MPs moved to the Shinde faction, taking the number to 324. DMK has 22 MPs. If it supports the bill the count reaches 346. Sources also say Sharad Pawar's NCP SP may join NDA. That party has eight MPs which would push the total to 354. Around 360 votes are needed for a two-thirds majority in the current house. With some MPs or small parties staying absent the effective threshold comes down and the bill could scrape through. DMK's support has therefore become critical to the entire exercise.

Has the bill been listed yet?

The government has not officially listed the Delimitation Bill for the monsoon session. But the political groundwork is clearly being laid. If the numbers fall into place, the bill could be brought at short notice. The government tried once before during the budget session and failed. This time the political landscape looks different.