India Feels the Heat: Russian Oil Shipments Dip After Donald Trump’s Sanctions Push

Russian oil imports to India fell from 1.95 to 1.19 million barrels per day after US sanctions hit Rosneft and Lukoil. The old deals will continue till the November 21 deadline, but imports will be further reduced in November as HMEL has stopped purchases and Reliance is evaluating the impact. India is now looking for oil from non-restricted Russian sources or alternative countries, which could increase volatility in global prices.

How much of the decline was caused by sanctions?

There has been a huge reduction in the supply of Russian crude oil to India after the sanctions imposed by the US on Rosneft and Lukoil. Oil coming from Russia declined from 1.95 million barrels per day to 1.19 million barrels per day in the last week of October. Rosneft's exports shrank from 1.41 million to 0.81 million barrels per day, while no oil from Lukoil was delivered that week. These two companies handle more than 50 percent of Russia's total production and exports.

What does the November 21 deadline mean?

America has ordered Russian companies to end all foreign deals by November 21. Deliveries remained normal in October due to previously settled contracts, but after this new purchases will almost stop. The oil currently arriving at Indian ports is part of the old contract. After this date, it will become risky to take oil directly from Rosneft and Lukoil.

Will imports decrease further in November?

Experts predict that Russian oil imports will fall further in November. HPCL-Mittal Energy (HMEL) has completely stopped purchasing Russian oil. Indian Oil Corporation has also announced compliance with international sanctions. Refineries are now exercising caution and avoiding cargoes linked to banned companies.

Will Reliance and other companies be affected?

Reliance Industries, which buys about half of India's Russian oil imports, said it was evaluating the impact of the sanctions. The company is now looking for Russian producers who are currently outside the sanctions. Nayara Energy, in which Rosneft has a majority stake, is also under pressure. Overall, all major Indian refineries are looking at alternative sources.

What will happen next?

Russia's oil exports, which account for 7 percent of global supply, are now in uncertainty. India, which was taking 1.8 million barrels of Russian oil per day in the first half of 2025, can now increase oil from the Middle East, Africa, or Latin America. This will increase volatility in global oil prices but will also open new avenues for India's energy security.