Bangladesh Election: How will BNP victory affect Bengal, Assam polls? Will ties with India improve?

New Delhi: The Tarique Rahman-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has won a landslide victory in the general elections in India's neighboring country, Bangladesh. The BNP is poised to form the government in Bangladesh once again after nearly 20 years, and Tarique Rahman will be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh. The BNP won two-thirds of the seats, while the fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami alliance suffered a major setback.

The fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami alliance, led by Shafiqur Rahman, which had dreamed of gaining power after the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government, suffered a crushing defeat. While the party managed to win over 200 seats in the Bangladesh elections, the Jamaat-e-Islami failed to win even 70 seats. Thus, the dream of Jamaat-e-Islami, which had dreamed of coming to power, was completely shattered.

The Bangladesh election results come at a time when political activity is rife for the assembly elections in West Bengal and Assam. Will the BNP's landslide victory in the general elections in Bangladesh, which has been grappling with political instability for the past two years, have a political impact not only on relations with India but also on the politics of Bengal and Assam?

How will Bangladesh election impact Assam and West Bengal?

Both Assam and West Bengal share borders with Bangladesh, so any political turmoil there will also impact the social and electoral dynamics of these two Indian states. Bangladesh shares a 4,000-kilometer border with India, India's longest border with any of its neighbors. Therefore, a stable Bangladesh is essential for India's peace and security. 

Amidst the political heat of the West Bengal elections, Bangladeshi infiltration and atrocities against Hindus in Bangladesh have been a key part of BJP politics. For the past several months, BJP leaders in Bengal have promoted these two issues as key election issues.

What is Bangladesh's political connection to West Bengal?

The situation in Bangladesh directly impacts West Bengal's politics. The war of words between the BJP and the TMC over border security has escalated. Furthermore, the issue of Bangladeshi infiltration has always been a hot topic in Assam, and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is engaged in a campaign to identify and deport illegal immigrants.

The Muslim community constitutes around 30 percent of the population in both Assam and Bengal. Due to the border between both states and Bangladesh, the BJP has already been politicizing the infiltration issue. After Sheikh Hasina left the country, the atrocities against Hindus and the violence in Bangladesh have fueled religious polarization in Bengal and Assam.

The BJP is presenting this issue as an "existential crisis for Hindus." BJP leaders like Suvendu Adhikari are linking it to Bengal's future and are saying, "We will not let Bengal become Bangladesh." Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has described the situation in Bangladesh as a "serious threat." Hemant has been campaigning against infiltrators. In such a situation, the victory of the BNP and the defeat of Jamaat-e-Islami in the Bangladesh elections could have political implications for both states.

How will this impact West Bengal politics?

The BJP has been targeting the Yunus government in Bangladesh, whether it be on the issue of infiltration or the killing of Hindus in Bangladesh. Effigies of Yunus were burned in West Bengal and a march to the Bangladesh High Commission in Kolkata was also held. BJP leader Suvendu Adhikari, along with hundreds of saints and sages, surrounded the Bangladesh High Commission to express their displeasure.

A large part of the BJP's politics in Bengal has been dependent on the situation in Bangladesh. Therefore, will the defeat of the fundamentalist party Jamaat-e-Islami in Bangladesh and the victory of the BNP not only strengthen political relations with India but also help cool the atmosphere of religious polarization in the politics of Bengal and Assam?

What is expected political impact on Bengal and Assam elections?

The victory of the BNP under the leadership of Tarique Rahman could lead to a good relationship with India. The BNP is seen as a moderate party in comparison to the likes of Jamaat-e-Islami. Therefore, the BNP's arrival will put an end to the negative sentiment that was building in India regarding Bangladesh.

When the elections were announced in Bangladesh, India welcomed it. Subsequently, after the death of Tarique Rahman's mother and BNP leader Khaleda Zia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi sent External Affairs Minister Jaishankar as his envoy to Bangladesh. Jaishankar also carried a letter of condolence written by PM Modi for Khaleda Zia.

Tributes were paid to Khaleda Zia in the Indian Parliament on the first day of the budget session. One thing is clear from this: India was fully supportive of the restoration of democracy in Bangladesh. The rise of the BNP will reduce discrimination against minorities in Bangladesh, which will also have an impact on India. Consequently, the atmosphere being created in the politics of Bengal and Assam will not only be reduced but will be stopped.

Is the BNP government a ray of hope?

A democratic government is being formed in Bangladesh. While the BJP was raising the issue of infiltration in Bengal, the TMC too is raising the issue of infiltration with the Union Home Ministry and the BSF.

While the TMC is busy blaming the government, a stable government in Bangladesh is now signaling a political advantage for the TMC in the changing circumstances. However, beyond politics, the situation in Bangladesh directly impacts India, as it hopes to curb smuggling and infiltration from Bangladesh.

Many parts of the India-Bangladesh border are unfenced. Animal smuggling, drug trafficking, and counterfeit currency flow through these areas. A strong and stable government in Bangladesh could put an end to this. Bangladesh's stability is a major concern. A stable Bangladesh with a strong government will mean secure borders, as both sides will now engage in dialogue. India is also concerned about the influx of terrorists from Bangladesh. A strong government will curb this.

Will religious extremism be curbed?

According to reports, ISI activities have increased in Bangladesh under the rule of Mohammad Yunus, and their ties with Pakistan are well known. This has led to the release of many extremists and terrorists. In such a situation, a strong BNP government led by Tarique Rahman would allow India to discuss these issues directly with Bangladesh and put a stop to these activities.

Before the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government, counter-terrorism had been an important part of relations between the two countries. Previous counter-terror operations conducted by both countries have been uninterrupted. India would like to maintain this balance, and therefore, it is crucial to have a democratically elected government.

Will India-Bangladesh relations strengthen?

Bangladesh and India have been long-standing trading partners. A stable Bangladesh is crucial for India's Act East Policy. During Hasina's government, relations between India and Bangladesh were very good. The two countries jointly expanded economic cooperation, expanding beyond trade to include energy cooperation and power trade. The future of these initiatives currently seems uncertain.

In such a situation, the emergence of a stable and strong Bangladesh government would help advance trade and mutual cooperation. Most importantly, Bangladesh is also a transit route for India, especially for the states of the Northeast. Therefore, having a democratic government would reduce dependence on the Siliguri Corridor and provide benefits.