Will Pakistan Withdraw From Indus Waters Treaty? Pakistani 'Expert' Explains How To Counter India

Islamabad: Tension has persisted between India and Pakistan for over a year regarding the Indus Waters Treaty. Following the Pahalgam terrorist attack in April 2025, India suspended the treaty - a move that has left Pakistan incensed. Pakistan alleges that India is obstructing the flow of water, causing agricultural distress in the Punjab province. Amidst this, Pakistani experts have questioned the very validity of the Indus Waters Treaty and have advised Islamabad to withdraw from it.

Why is Pakistan unhappy with India's IWT move?

Hassan Abbas, a Pakistani expert on hydrology and water resources, has characterized the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) as a pact drafted entirely in India's favor. In an article published in the Pakistani newspaper 'Dawn', he posed the fundamental question: what, ultimately, has Pakistan gained from the IWT, and what does it have left to lose?

Abbas noted that in 1948, India shut down irrigation canals serving Pakistan. This crisis was resolved in 1960, when the Indus Waters Treaty was signed. He alleged that India has never wavered from its stance that the Eastern Rivers—the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—belong to it. Pakistan was instructed to wean itself off its dependence on these rivers and instead utilize the waters of the Western Rivers—the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

Is the Indus Waters Treaty a Losing Proposition for Pakistan?

Abbas asserted that Pakistan gained nothing from the treaty that it stands to lose should the agreement be terminated. He pointed out that the original text of the treaty clearly delineates the benefits accruing to India, noting that India holds exclusive rights over the Eastern Rivers, while Pakistan's share is effectively nil.

The Pakistani expert further observed that while the Western Rivers were allocated to Pakistan, India was granted unlimited rights to construct hydropower projects on them. He highlighted that India retained every drop of water it was capable of diverting; Pakistan received only that water which India was unable to divert—a consequence dictated by the geographical topography of these river basins.

He characterized the allocation of the Western rivers to Pakistan as a matter of compulsion for India. He noted that these rivers traverse towering mountain ranges before reaching Pakistan. In this region, diverting or storing water on a large scale is, from a practical standpoint, not feasible. He stated that while the treaty permits India to divert or store more than 3 million acre-feet of water, this has not been done over the past 65 years—simply because it cannot be done.

In contrast, the Eastern rivers flow along a border situated on flat alluvial plains, where diverting water is both cheaper and easier. He alleged that the treaty effectively allows India to appropriate all the water that is physically possible to take, leaving Pakistan with only the residual water that India is unable to utilize.

Will Pakistan Withdraw from the Indus Waters Treaty?

He asserted that it would be in Pakistan's best interest to withdraw from this treaty. In support of this argument, he reasoned that the volume of water Pakistan currently receives would continue to flow to the country regardless. While advising withdrawal from the treaty, he suggested that Pakistan should articulate its stance regarding environmental concerns and human rights under the 2024 Berlin Rules on International Watercourses. He leveled baseless allegations against India, accusing it of polluting the rivers and claiming that this pollution is adversely impacting Pakistan.