Uncertainty Surrounds Khamenei: The Most Challenging Phase of His Rule and Why the US Sees Him as a Threat (Image Courtesy: Reuters)
Iran: On Saturday, America and Israel together launched powerful airstrikes on Iran, which shook the entire West Asia. The biggest target of these attacks was the headquarters of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran. For 86-year-old Khamenei, who has been in power in Iran since 1989, this has become the biggest threat to his 36-year-long rule.
Sources say that Khamenei was shifted to a safe place even before the attack, but satellite photos clearly show that his compound has been heavily destroyed. For decades, Khamenei has crushed domestic rebellions and maintained his power through proxy wars, but this time the situation is completely different.
This year they carried out the bloodiest repression since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, with protesters firing directly at protesters. Their position outside is also weakening—Hezbollah is collapsing in Lebanon, and Assad's government has fallen in Syria.
In the last one year, Israel and America destroyed many nuclear and missile sites of Iran, which significantly reduced Khamenei's strategic power. Still, they are not ready to give up ballistic missiles, because this is their last shield.
When Khamenei was made Khomeini's successor in 1989, everyone considered him weak. He had neither the charisma like Khomeini nor the religious status. But he cleverly made the IRGC (Revolutionary Guards) so strong that they became directly loyal to him.
His thinking was always anti-Western, but he also showed flexibility when needed. The 2015 nuclear deal was approved so that the sanctions could be lifted and the government could be strengthened. In 2018, Trump broke the deal and became strict again.
Khamenei's entire power rests on two things—IRGC and his huge economic empire, 'Setad.' This organization, worth billions of dollars is directly under their control and the money is used to strengthen the security forces.
The 2009 election protests, the 2022 Mahsa Amini movement or the recent economic turmoil—each time brutally crushed by Basij militias and guards.
Khamenei, who lost his right hand in a bomb blast in 1981, is seen by his followers as a man who will go to any lengths to protect the Islamic Republic. Today he is considered the most powerful leader of Iran, but these attacks have raised a big question on his fortress-like security.
Khamenei has a special relationship with India, which is linked to his family. His ancestors were from Kintoor village in Barabanki district of Uttar Pradesh. His ancestor named Syed Ahmed Moosavi reached Iran via Iraq around 1830. This is a kind of emotional connection that is still alive today.
Overall, these attacks are challenging not just military action but Iran's entire system. The coming days will tell whether Khamenei's rule is on the verge of ending or whether a new war will begin. The situation is very delicate, there is concern all over the world.
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