IMF Exposes Pakistan’s $11 Billion Trade Data Manipulation, Demands Full Transparency And Accountability

IMF Warns Pakistan:  Pakistan has long struggled with economic hardship and debt burden. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which provides financial assistance to Pakistan, is now angry over irregularities in the country's government trade data. According to the Express Tribune report, Pakistani government agencies manipulated import and trade data over the past two years, due to which the IMF has asked the government to publicly disclose and resolve the discrepancies worth $11 billion.

Question on credibility

According to government sources, import figures reported by the Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) were $5.1 billion lower than those reported by the Pakistan Single Window (PSW) in fiscal year 2023-24. The gap widened to $5.7 billion the following year. PSW data is considered more comprehensive and accurate, while PRAL's figures were also lower than the State Bank of Pakistan's freight-on-board import data, which is used in the country's external balance and economic policies.

IMF warning

The IMF reportedly contacted the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) before the review talks and subsequently held discussions with the Ministry of Planning and Development. During the meetings, the IMF recommended that Pakistan adopt a clear communication policy to clarify discrepancies and methodological changes in trade statistics, so as not to create distrust between the government and data users.

Lack of data in statistics

Officials themselves admitted that the trade data submitted to the Geneva-based International Trade Centre was insufficient. Some import data was missing, resulting from the data transfer from PRAL to PSW. PRAL operates under the Federal Board of Revenue, while PSW is an independent legal entity, comprising mostly customs officers. PSW data includes all import entries, while PRAL's dataset excludes several categories, such as raw materials.

Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif's stance

Following the IMF's crackdown, the Pakistani government also became active. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif stated that his government would increase economic cooperation with Malaysia to reduce its dependence on the IMF and that it planned to permanently defeat the IMF through partnership with Malaysia. He also formed a committee to investigate the shortcomings.

The biggest flaws in the data

A review of data from the past five years found a decline of about $3 billion in textiles and about $1 billion in metal imports. Although the IMF urged transparency, officials were hesitant to release revised figures, fearing they would impact net export calculations and economic growth projections.