According to experts, the monsoon is now expected to arrive in Kerala by June 3. (Image X @ani_digital)
New Delhi: India's Southwest Monsoon should have reached Kerala by now, but it is running behind schedule. According to experts, the monsoon is now expected to arrive in Kerala by June 3. Some weather experts even suggest that further delays could occur. This marks the third instance where weather forecasters have had to push back the projected arrival date of the monsoon.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) initially predicted that the monsoon would reach Kerala on May 26. This forecast anticipated an arrival earlier than the normal date of June 1. Consequently, expectations for an early onset of rainfall had risen. However, May 25 passed without the monsoon making its arrival. Subsequently, the forecast was revised to May 28, and later shifted back to the normal timeframe—around June 1. Now, the IMD states that the monsoon will not arrive before June 3, and its arrival could be delayed even further.
Every year, the Southwest Monsoon first makes landfall on the coast of Kerala; it then advances northward, eventually encompassing the entire country by late June or early July. The arrival of the monsoon in Kerala is one of the most closely watched meteorological events of the year, as it officially marks the beginning of India's four-month-long rainy season.
In fact, three specific conditions must be met simultaneously before the IMD officially declares the onset of the monsoon: continuous rainfall at at least 60% of the designated weather stations in Kerala; westerly winds blowing at a specific velocity over the Arabian Sea; and sufficient cloud cover, as detected by satellite imagery. Currently, the winds remain the primary impediment.
The westerly winds blowing along the coast of Kerala have been so weak that they have failed to trigger the official onset of the monsoon; however, moisture is present in the region, and intermittent rainfall has already begun in parts of the state and in Lakshadweep. A cyclone that formed in the Bay of Bengal has further exacerbated the situation, as cyclones often disrupt and weaken the organized flow of winds upon which the monsoon relies to reach the country's interior regions. The IMD forecasts that the winds will gradually intensify around June 1st, thereby initiating the monsoon; however, as conditions remain unstable, the exact date of its onset remains uncertain.
A delay of a few days in Kerala by no means implies that trouble looms for the rest of the country. The IMD has clarified that the monsoon is officially considered 'delayed' only if it fails to arrive by June 8th—a date exactly one week after its normal scheduled arrival. Therefore, there is still scope for conditions to normalize, though that window of opportunity is rapidly narrowing.
This delay in the monsoon comes at a time when the year is already fraught with challenges. Large parts of the country are currently experiencing severe heatwaves, and warnings have been issued regarding an intense 'El Niño' event, which could further disrupt weather patterns. It is precisely due to the strengthening of El Niño that the IMD has forecast a below-normal monsoon for 2026, with rainfall during this season expected to amount to only 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA). In fact, this latest forecast is even lower than the estimate (92%) issued by the IMD back in April.
A strengthening El Niño could reduce rainfall, particularly in Central and Southern India during the latter half of the season. For now, the monsoon has once again arrived late, and people across the country will have to wait a little longer to experience the cool showers and breeze.
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