Will Fuel Prices Slide In 2026? Crude Oil Could Hit $50 A Barrel

New Delhi: Crude oil prices, a key driver of petrol and diesel costs in India, are showing signs of a possible downward trend in 2026. Analysts and recent reports on Monday suggest global supply could outpace demand and push Brent crude prices closer to the $50-per-barrel mark by mid-year. If this plays out, it may create room for lower fuel prices at Indian pumps.

Why are experts talking about $50 crude?

A fresh analysis from SBI Research points to a faster than expected fall in crude prices this year. The report, released in early January, says Brent crude could soften significantly and touch around $50 per barrel by June. That level hasn’t been seen in recent years, and analysts say it could help ease inflation and give consumers some relief at the petrol pump.

Global price forecasts also back the idea of a weaker oil market in 2026. Some economists expect Brent crude to average in the mid-$50s this year, with the possibility of dipping further in parts of 2026 if supply stays abundant and demand remains subdued.

Will fuel prices in India actually fall?

Despite the talk of cheaper crude, fuel prices in India have stayed high. Petrol in Delhi is hovering near Rs 95 per litre and diesel around Rs 88, with no major cuts since early 2024. A drop in international crude doesn't always translate immediately into lower pump prices here, due to taxes and pricing formulas used by oil companies.

Industry watchers say any reduction in petrol and diesel rates will depend on how sharply crude prices fall and how quickly refiners pass that change on to consumers. Historically, such pass-through can be slow and uneven.

What could influence prices next?

Several global factors could shape oil markets in the months ahead. Oversupply from major producers, including OPEC+ and the US, might keep prices under pressure if demand growth fails to keep up. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, such as unrest in oil-producing regions, could inject volatility and slow or reverse price declines.

For Indian consumers, the key will be watching both international crude movements and domestic pricing decisions by oil firms. For now, hopes of cheaper petrol and diesel hinge on whether crude oil can sustain its slide toward that $50 level.